18 Sept 2023

September 18, 2023

      AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

      Sz 3 Na PWL Aoraki Area, NZ. 2023/09/14. Instagram report below. 


       Avalanche Control Cerro Cathedral, Argentina. 2023/09/12. Instagram post below.


      Inbounds avalanches in Las Lenas, Argentina, 2023/09/11. Instagram post below.   Luke Stone Pic


      Sz 3 Na after rain event, Aoraki Area, NZ. 2023/09/10?. NZAA Public Observation below. 


      Deposit from above Sz 3 Na.



      WEATHER PAST WEEK:

      Monday September 11, 2023. 12:00 Hrs. +8 Deg C with a 5-15 KPH ESE wind at 1835 m.


     12:00 Hrs. Monday. +14 Deg C. Raining lightly. 2.5 mm recorded at 660 m from 0-24 Hrs.


      Tuesday September 12, 2023. 12:00 Hrs. +6 Deg C with a 5-15 KPH ESE wind at 1835 m.


     12:00 Hrs Tuesday. +13 Deg C. Rain Showers. 0.3 mm recorded at 660 m.


      Wednesday September 13, 2023. 12:00 Hrs.


      12:00 Hrs Wednesday. +17 Deg C in the valley.

      Thursday September 14, 2023. 13:00 Hrs. +13 Deg C with a 5-10 KPH WNW wind at 1835 m.


     13:00 Hrs Thursday. +23 Deg C.

      Friday September 15, 2023. 12:00 Hrs. +16 Deg C with a 10-25 KPH SE wind at 1835 m.


     12:00 Hrs Friday. +23 Deg C. High of 27.5 Deg C.


      Saturday September 16, 2023. 16:00 Hrs. Note the fire in the background!


      16:00 Hrs Saturday. +25 Deg C in the valley. 

      Sunday September 17, 2023. 12:00 Hrs. +8 Deg C with a 5-20 KPH SE wind. Smoke in the air!

     12:00 Hrs Sunday. +17 Deg C. Could smell smoke!



Weather Observations for September 18, 2023, taken at 06:00 Hours.

2180 meters       0, Winds were 30-40 KPH SSW--Whistler Peak
1835 meters     +2, Winds were 20-35 KPH SSW--Roundhouse  
1650 meters     +4, 13.2 mm in 12 Hrs, 13.9 mm in 24 Hrs.--Pig Alley
1570 meters     +3,   8.5 mm in 12 Hrs,   8.8 mm in 24 Hrs.--Catskinner
  660 meters   +10, Valley Temp, Max temp Yesterday was +17.5, 0.2 mm of precip yesterday.

     
      As of 07:00 Hrs we have a mix of sun and cloud with unlimited visibility.



FORECAST:

Departing cold upper level low will bring a mix of sun and cloud today in Westerly flow aloft switching to Northerly as the day progresses with some dirty ridging. The FL is hovering in the 2200 m zone. Possibility of some isolated showers in the am. Unsettled into Tuesday with another weak impulse of moisture Tuesday pm/night. Dries out Wednesday with lingering cloud in the am and a mix of sun and cloud for most of the day.. Looks like ridging with sunny skies for Thursday into Friday. An approaching weak trough will likely bring cloud to the zone for Friday night with more moisture in the mix.  Cloudy cool weather with some showers on Saturday into the weekend.  Guesstimates: 0-trace by Tuesday am, 1-5 mm by Wednesday am, Snow in the upper elevations. 0 mm by Thursday am, 0 mm by Friday am, 2-4 mm by Saturday am, 5-10 mm by Sunday am. Some models are calling for a wet weekend.


      GOES VIS/IR Image from this am.



      WINDY IMAGE 2023/09/18. 06:00 Hrs.



     Dries out Monday, mix of sun and cloud. Seasonable temps, a bit on the cool side.


      Westerly flow transitioning to Northerly flow aloft.


        Cool weak upper low for Tuesday with some rain and cooler temps.


      Periods of light precipitation Tuesday pm.


       Dirty ridging for Wednesday with seasonable temps. Mix of sun and cloud.


      Dries out for Wednesday.


       Ridge builds in for Thursday with sunny skies. Above average temps.


      High for Thursday with sunny skies.



      Sunny skies Friday with a weak front arriving Friday night. May see some showers.


      Deep low moves down the coast with cooler wet weather arriving Saturday night.


       Low will bring mostly cloudy skies Sunday with moisture in the mix at some point..


      Long range looks like potential for some real rain next week. Fall Weather, we are due!


      INFORMATION AND OBSERVATIONS:

      Rain showers Monday 08:15 hrs. +8 Deg C with a 15-30 KPH ESE wind at 1860 m.

      Breaks in the cloud 18:00 hrs Monday. From 06:00 Hrs to 18:00 Hrs 7.1 mm at 1650 m.

      08:00 Hrs Tuesday. +6 Deg C with a 5-15 KPH South wind.

      08:00 Hrs Wednesday. +5 Deg C with a 5-10 KPH ESE wind at 1860 m. 

      08:00 Hrs Thursday. +8 Deg C with a 0-5 KPH NE Breeze. Smoke lingering to the North.


      08:00 Hrs Friday. +11 Deg C. Inversion!  


      08:00 Hrs. Saturday +9 Deg C. Fires burning Northeast of Pemberton.

       Smoke above the Birkenhead Valley Saturday am from the Spetch Creek Fire.


      Significant glacial recession in the past 5 years.

      Spetch Creek fire Saturday 16:00 Hrs. Flammagenitus Cloud, also called Pyrocumulus Cloud.


      Many out of control fires in the area. Bring on the rain!!!


      08:00 Hrs Sunday. +6 Deg C with a 10-20 KPH SE wind at 1860 m. 


      Some moisture arrived around 15:00 Hrs Sunday.






      65 Days until the planed opening at WB.




SHORT CLIPS:

Powder Turns: Argentina

Powder Turns: Chile

Glacier Melt brings Rock Slides: Switzerland



INSTAGRAM POSTS FROM NEW ZEALAND & SOUTH AMERICA:

Large Avalanche visible from Las Lenas: 2023/09/17

Sz 3 Na PWL 2023/09/14: New Zealand

Avalanche Control 2023/09/12: Portillo, Chile

After a 2.5m snowfall in 24 hours at Las Lenas: Inbounds Avalanches 

Partial Burials Cerro Cathedral 2023/09/12: Argentina

Avalanche Control results,--Cerro Cathedral, 2023/09/12: Argentina

Avalanche Control-- Cerro Cathedral, 2023/09/12: Argentina

Heuristics and Avalanche Safety: NZAA



ARTICLES & CLIPS:

Sz 3 Na Public Observation, spring cycle from Mt Cook Area: New Zealand

Avalanche Education needs more women: Colorado Sun

Will the new month bring a pattern change as we head into El Nino season: SWE

The Polar Vortex and the upcoming winter: Severe Weather Europe

Can drones assist in snow and avalanche studies: TS2 

Gas spotted rising from ground at Black Tusk: You Tube




11 Sept 2023

September 11, 2023

     AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

      Sz 2 Sr Persistent Slab 2023/09/09. Aoraki Region, NZ. Report below.               NZAA Pic

      Widespread Wet Loose, Wet Slab, Persistent Slab and Slab Avalanches in Aoraki Area, NZ.


      Widespread avalanche cycle 2023/09/07. Aoraki, NZ. Instagram Post below. NZAA Images.

      Na D2 Multiple Loose Wet. 2023/09/07. Craigieburn Range, NZ.      AKG ASC2 Image

      Skier accidental, Argentina. 2023/09/06. More information in the article below.

      Sz 2 Sr PWL 2023/08/28 Aoraki Region, NZ. Report below.                                NZAA Pic


      WEATHER PAST WEEK:

      Monday September 4, 2023. 12:00 Hrs. +7 Deg C with a 5-15 West wind at 1835 m.

     12:00 Hrs Monday. +17 Deg C.


      Tuesday September 5, 2023. +6 Deg C with a 15-20 KPH West wind at 1835 m.


      12:00 Hrs Tuesday. +16 Deg C.


      Wednesday September 6, 2023. +8 Deg C with a 10-20 KPH SW wind at 1835 m.


     12:00 Hrs Wednesday. +16 Deg C.

      Thursday September 7, 2023. 15:00 Hrs. +8 Deg C with a 5-15 KPH West wind at 1835 m.


     15:00 Hrs. Thursday. +20 Deg C at 660 m.

      Friday September 8, 2023. 12:00 Hrs.


      12:00 Hrs Friday. +22.2 Deg C.

      Saturday September 9, 2023. 12:00 Hrs. +15 Deg C with a 15-30 KPH ESE wind at 1835 m.


     12:00 Hrs. Saturday. +23 Deg C. AQHI 2!

      Sunday September 10, 2023. 12:00 Hrs. +15 Deg C with a 15-40 KPH ESE wind at 1835 m.


      12:00 Hrs Sunday. +24 Deg C. AQHI at 3!



Weather Observations for September 11, 2023, taken at 06:00 Hours.

2180 meters     +5, Winds were 40-50 KPH SE--Whistler Peak
1860 meters     +7, Winds were 15-25 KPH ESE--Rendezvous  
1650 meters     +8, 1.7 mm in 12 Hrs, 1.7 mm in 24 Hrs.--Pig Alley
1570 meters     +8, 0.7 mm in 12 Hrs, 0.7 mm in 24 Hrs.--Catskinner
  660 meters   +13, Valley Temp, Max temp Yesterday was +26.4, 0.0 mm of precip yesterday.


     
      As of 07:00 Hrs we have overcast skies and variable visibility.



FORECAST:

Weak frontal band will bring an unsettled weather day in a Southerly flow aloft. Mostly cloudy with some breaks this pm and showers this am in the mix. The FL is hovering around 3200 m. Another cool weak frontal band for Tuesday with cloudy skies and pm light rain. Any moisture is very welcome. Lingering cloud Wednesday am but the ridge begins to build.. Ridging Thursday with a mix of sun and cloud. Above average temperatures. Ridge strengthens Friday into the weekend. Some model discussion of rain by Sunday, but could be a mix of sun and cloud--time will tell! Guesstimates: 1-3 mm by Tuesday am, 1-4 mm by Wednesday am, 0 mm by Thursday am, 0 mm by Friday am, 0 mm by Saturday am, 0 mm by Sunday am.


      GOES IR/VIS IMAGE from this am.


      WINDY IMAGE 2023/09/11. 06:00 Hrs.


       Weak frontal band this Monday am, isolated showers. Seasonable temps. 


      Overcast skies Monday with isolated showers. May see some breaks this pm.


      Southerly flow aloft.


       Frontal band for Tuesday. Periods of light rain. Seasonable temps.


      Periods of light rain Tuesday.



       Dirty ridging Wednesday as the high pushes back in. Seasonable temps.


      Mix of sun and cloud Wednesday. Dry.


       High pressure strengthens Thursday. Above average temps.


      Dry Thursday with sunny skies and warm temps.


      Dry sunny day Friday.


      Low to the North will likely bring a mix of sun and cloud Saturday. Above average temps.


      Low may slip into the area by Sunday. Some models calling for rain. 


      INFORMATION AND OBSERVATIONS:

      03:00 Hrs Monday. Moon still very bright. Stratus Cloud layer in the valley. +6 Deg C at 2280 m.


      18:00 Hrs on Labour Day. 

      Tuesday 07:00 Hrs. +4 Deg C.


      Construction ongoing for the new Fitszimmons Chair.


     Light rain Wednesday afternoon. 2.7 mm recorded at 1650 m, 0.0 mm recorded at 660 m.

      Thursday 07:00 Hrs, very little snow left in Blackcomb Bowl.


      Berg Lake Thursday afternoon.


      Warren Glacier, has retreated significantly after reading < the article on its demise.

      Horstman Glacier Friday afternoon. High of +11 Deg C at 2280 m. 


      Saturday morning. 10:00 Hrs. Smoke to the North.


      Same time period Saturday. Upper level ridge.


      Windy image from same time frame. Front will weaken if the ridge holds. Cloud by Sunday am?

      Blackcomb Bowl--Sunday Sept 10, 2023.

      Sept 12, 2013! Taken from the archive section on the side bar.


      Whistler Bowl Sept 10, 2023.  Dust, rockfall and warm summers have contributed to the melt.


      Sept 14, 2012. Significant difference.




SHORT CLIPS:

September POW Turns: Chile

Storm Skiing end of August: Chile

Serious Melt: Subglacial Flow

Ski Touring: Summer Workout



INSTAGRAM POSTS from New Zealand and Chile:

Sz 2 Sr 2023/09/09: NZAA

Widespread Avalanche Cycle 2023/09/07: NZAA

Sz 2 Sr in Aorki Region, Sz 2 Wet Slab: NZAA

Avalanche Rescue Chile 2023/08/25, no casualties: Instagram

Different perspective of above rescue: Instagram



ARTICLES:

High Avalanche Danger in many parts of Southern New Zealand: NZAA

Large avalanche at Club Andino Canyon: Argentina

The Avalanche Triangle: Snow Science

California Avalanche Workshop: October 22, 2023

Guide shares near-miss experience in the Remarkables, NZ: Gavin Lang

AI in snow studies: Predicting Avalanches

Avalanche Alliance donates $45,000 to 7 US avalanche centers : Powersportsbusiness

Earth had hottest three-months on record: World Meteorological Organization

ENSO--Recent Evolution, Current Status and predictions, Sept 5, 2023: NOAA

Major El Nino Developing: Cliff Mass Weather Blog

Pictures of Horstman Glacier-July 2006 compared to August 2023: SnowBrains

Drought conditions in BC a 'sleeping giant of a natural disaster': Ongoing Drought