October 14, 2016

    Typhoon Songda (Tues), --remnants of typhoon will add to the mix on Saturday-? 1+ meter in Alp.

    Monday evening October 9, 2016

    Image from Monday, took a while for the cloud to dissipate.

    Tuesday morning, October 11, 2016

    Image from Tuesday morning.

    Mouth of the Birkenhead River, Tues am.

    Duffy was spectacular on Tuesday morning.

    Early Wednesday morning, October 12, 2016.

    Image of the approaching front on Wednesday.

    Looking like winter in Revy as well!!

    Wet snow Thursday morning October 13, 2016. +2 at 1835M at 09:30 Hrs. 20 mm at 1650M.

    Thursday morning, most of the moisture is South of Whistler in the am.

   Thursday afternoon, unsettled in Whistler as of 14:00 Hrs. 16.4 mm recorded at 660 meters.

    Thursday afternoon.

Weather Observations for October 14, 2016: taken at 07:00 Hours.

2240 meters    -2, Winds were 40-50 KPH SE  --Horstman Hut
1835 meters     0, Winds were 20-40 KPH ESE --Roundhouse
1650 meters   +1, RH 100%  19.3 mm of rain   --Pig Alley  Precip amount since 00:00 Hrs

  660 meters   +5, Valley Temp, Max Temp Yesterday was +9.7,  16.4 mm of Precip recorded yest

    As of 07:30 Hrs this am we have an obscured sky and It is snowing.



For the forecast, a vigorous Pacific frontal system is pushing through our region this morning with moderate to heavy precipitation in a Southerly flow. The front should move out of the zone by early Saturday morning with a break in the weather for Saturday afternoon. The next deep low will send another front through Saturday evening into early Sunday morning easing off by Sunday afternoon. A large upper level trough is forecasted for Sunday night into Tuesday with cool showery conditions. A dirty ridge will likely build for Wednesday allowing us to see how much it snowed in the alpine. The FL will fluctuate between 1600-1900 meters over the next few days. Stay dry!!

    Friday morning.

    Vigorous Pacific Frontal System, precip increased around 06:00 Hrs this am.

    Flow for the weekend. Missed us on Thursday.

    Friday (Front #2) is looking juicier than Thursday's.

    Some breaks possible Saturday afternoon.

    Another strong low for Saturday night (Front #3) into Sunday.

    Continued showers Monday into Tuesday, will update on Monday.


ARTICLES:

Backcountry Refresher-October 15, 2016: Calgary, Alberta

Avalanche educators grapple with social media's influence on Backcountry Travelers decision making: ISSW

An avalanche in Ecuador (Instagram): El Altar

Ski Inspired by turtle scales: Technologist Online

    Sunday-crust over 30 cm of snow at 1900 M at Wedgemount Lake.                     Holly Walker Pic                                

    Cold clear nights are prime for surface hoar development. Duffy Tuesday morning.

    Mt Matier of the Joffery group-Duffy Lake Road. Click here for info

    It was cloudy in Revelstoke on Tuesday.

    Nicer day in Revy on Wednesday.

    Approaching front on Wednesday evening.

    Howe Sound Thursday morning.

    Snow line is still fairly low--Thursday pm.

October 12, 2016

                     Winter 2016-2017—What will it bring?

Lately many conversations lead to- What will it be like this winter? During the summer its easy to go on line and begin to read what scientists are saying about the up coming winter, requiring many hours of screen time . It seems that what ever you read it will change by the time winter arrives.  For instance the La Nina being predicted this summer is now looking like a La Nada winter. The blob has gone from decreasing in size to strengthening again. One thing for certain is that the world is in a warming phase. As of now NOAA is predicting a neutral phase for the next few months bordering on a La Nina phase.

   Meteorological winter is from December to February so there is still time for more data to                   influence the predictions. 

     I have included a glossary at the bottom of the page for your viewing pleasure if you are

curious to learn the lingo. 

     We have had La Nada winters with decent conditions and ones, with less than a desirable             outcome.

    The unpredictability in a neutral phase leaves the crystal ball foggy 

    or like riding in a stratus layer.

Presently, the weather pattern is showing signs of an early winter, it would be nice for the lows to keep coming out of the North with just enough influence from the arctic outbreaks to keep our snow pack dry and manageable. 

My gut feeling is we are going to get above average snow in October thru December, even with a La Nada phase. Que Sera Sera—What ever will be, will be. 

    As far as Jan into Apr, will try and keep my finger on the winter pulse but only time will tell.

    One thing is certain, Winter arrives December 21, 2016 at 02:44 Am.

El Nino:Wikipedia

La Nina: Wikipedia

La Nada: Washington State University

The Blob: Cliff Mass Weather Blog

ENSO: NOAA

Pacific Decadal Oscillation:Wikipedia

Stratus Layer: Wikipedia

    Play hard but play safe.

    Series of low pressure's heading our way!!! Remnants of Typhoon Songda adding to precip.

    Duffy Lake Tuesday October 11, 2016.

Weather Observations for October 12, 2016: taken at 06:00 Hours.

2240 meters    -4, Winds were 20-30 KPH SE--Horstman Hut
1835 meters    -2, Winds were   5-10 KPH SE --Roundhouse
1550 meters    -2, RH 63%  0.0 mm of rain      --Catskinner

  660 meters    -4, Valley Temp, Max Temp Yesterday was +9.6,  0.0 mm of Precip recorded yest

October 10, 2016

 

    Horstman Glacier Sunday                                                                                    Jeff Van Driel Pic

    Friday morning, October 7, 2016.

    Friday morning.

    Friday afternoon.

    A brief glimpse of the lowering snow line on Friday. 14.9 mm recorded at 660 M.

    Saturday October 8, 2016--Snowing, -1 at 1835 meters.

    Satellite image Saturday morning.

    Snow down to the valley Saturday afternoon. 29.6 mm recorded at 660 meters Saturday.

    Big picture Saturday afternoon. First major storm of the fall--44.5 mm recorded at 660 M Fri-Sat.

    Sunday morning October 9, 2016. -2 at 07:00 Hrs.

    Snow drifts on Whistler Peak--Likely some slab formation on upper lee slopes.

    Sunday morning, good image of the atmospheric river South of BC.

    Armchair Sunday.

Weather Observations for October 10, 2016: taken at 07:00 Hours.

2180 meters    -8, Winds were 25-50 KPH SW--Whistler Peak
1835 meters    -5, Winds were   5-20 KPH SE --Roundhouse
1650 meters    -4, RH 78%  0.0 mm of rain      --Pig Alley

  660 meters   +1, Valley Temp, Max Temp Yesterday was +9.7,  0.0 mm of Precip recorded yest

    As of 07:00 Hrs this am we have overcast skies and unlimited visibility.

    Looking a lot like winter. Southerly flow this morning shifting later to Northerly.



For the forecast, a trough to our South is still pushing some cloud into our zone this morning but a high pressure aloft in a Northerly flow will bring cool sunny weather for later this morning, into Wednesday. We will likely see some cloud by Wednesday late in the day as the first frontal band moves onshore. A deep low out of the Gulf of Alaska will slowly move South sending a series of frontal bands our way into the weekend. We can expect a series of wet cool fronts with windy conditions Thursday into Sunday. The freezing level will drop Monday as a short lived arctic outbreak pushes just East of Whistler, than rise to around 2500 meters on Wednesday than drop back down to about 1800 meters Thursday through Saturday. Feels like an early winter is a good possibility.



Have lost two of my advertisers this fall so far, if anyone has any company contacts that may have an interest in placing an advertisement on the blog please e mail me at wwflann@me.com. If I cannot find enough support to generate some revenue, 5 years of hard work and archived information may come to an end. Any ideas would be appreciated!!

Thanks for all the support and ideas. Some feel I should have a subscription where users would pay by the month. Would like to keep the blog available to all users!!! 

    Lingering cloud this morning should dissipate.

    Looking like a nice day.

    Flow for this week, looks like more snow in the mountains by the end of the week!!

    Nice until Wednesday

    First frontal band on Thursday.

    Cool wet frontal bands over the weekend with strong winds.

    Northwesterly flow for the weekend.





ARTICLES:

10 Common Mistakes in Avalanche Safety: ISSW 2016

Latest ENSO data from NOAA-Neutral Conditions: La Nada

If there is enough snow to slide on, there is enough snow for avalanches: ISSW Snowfall update

Northwest Snow and Avalanche Workshop: Seattle-October 23, 2016

Upcoming Snow and Avalanche Workshops: American Avalanche Association

First intel of the season from Jeff Van Driel:

30-45 cms on Horstman Glacier at 2100 M with a 1 cm breakable surface crust. Unconsolidated stellars below. Loose solar size 1 and a couple of slab avalanches up to size 2 in steep lee slopes around the Horstman glacier.

 

    35 cm on Horstman Glacier                                                                                     Jeff Van Driel Pic

                                                                                                                               Jeff Van Driel Pic

                     Avalanche Activity                                                         Jeff Van Driel Pic

    Looking like winter                                                                                                  Jeff Van Driel Pic

    Sucker hole Friday, late in the afternoon, prior to a more vigorous front arriving early Saturday.

    Looks like winter has arrived early.

    Saturday afternoon--2.0 Km from Function Junction.

    Snow accumulation at 680 meters Saturday afternoon.

    Sunday morning--Pemberton Valley. 43.7 mm of rain recorded Friday-Saturday at the airport.

    Pretty impressive for October 9, 2016.