25 Oct 2021

October 25, 2021

     PAST WEEK:

      Monday October 18, 2021. 12:30 Hrs. 0 Deg C at 1835 m.

      Tuesday October 19, 2021. 12:00 Hrs. +4 Deg C at 1835 m.

      Wednesday October 20, 2021. 12:00 Hrs. +1 Deg C at 1835 m.

      Thursday October 21, 2021. 12:00 Hrs. +3 Deg C at 1835 m.

      Friday October 22, 2021. 13:00 Hrs. +2 Deg C at 1835 m.

     Saturday October 23, 2021. 12:00 Hrs. 0 Deg C at 1835 m.


      Sunday October 25, 2021. 12:00 Hrs. 0 Deg C at 1835 m.



Weather Observations for October 25, 2021 taken at 06:00 Hours.

2180 meters      -4, Winds were 70-90 KPH SE--Whistler Peak 
1835 meters      -2, Winds were 20-50 KPH ESE--Round House
1650 meters       0,  ? mm in 12 Hrs, ? mm in 24 Hrs --Pig Alley
  660 meters     +4, Valley Temp, Max temp Yesterday was +6.8, 8.3 mm of precip yesterday


      As of 07:00 Hrs this am we have overcast skies, limited visibility, and snowing at 1835 m.


FORECAST:

A weakening low will bring wet and windy weather for today in a Southwesterly flow aloft. The freezing level is around 1600 m, likely rising to 1800 m this afternoon. We can expect wet weather over the next few days with snow in the alpine and possibly down to 1400 m. Tuesday will see a trough push through in a Westerly flow aloft. More of the same Wednesday. Some models diverge on Thursday but going with the European model of more rain, possibly an atmospheric river event, to our south.. Looking like unsettled weather for Friday into the weekend with a mix of sun and cloud. Guesstimates: 15-30 mm by Tuesday am, 15-20 mm by Wednesday am, 20-30 mm by Thursday am, 10-20 mm by Friday am, 0-Trace by Saturday am, 0 mm by Sunday am, 0 mm by Monday am. These numbers are going off the European models, but last weeks series of storms ended up being less than the forecasted numbers. 


      GOES image this am.

       Weakening low on the coast with warming temperatures at 1600 m.






     Southwesterly flow aloft this am.


      Upper trough for Tuesday with more precipitation.







      Westerly flow for Wednesday with periods of precipitation, slightly cooler. 




        Models diverge on Thursday, but it could be wet.


      Looks wet on this image.


     Weak ridging on Friday.

      Ridge strengthens Saturday.


      Ridging for Sunday.



     AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

      3 Dead, 3 missing after an avalanche on Chimborazo Volcano, Ecuador. Article below.  Net Pic


     Rescuers retrieve bodies after exposure and avalanches kill trekkers in Northern India.        Net Pic


      Spring cycle in New Zealand. Recent wet loose to slab near Mt Cook. Oct 20, 2021. Will Pic



     INFORMATION & OBSERVATIONS:

      Cloud cover dissipated quickly on Monday. At 11:00 Hrs it was -6 Deg C at 2240 m.

      Monday 12:30 Hrs. +8 Deg C at 660 m. 

      Noon Tuesday, +7 Deg C at 660 m.


      Noon Wednesday. +8 Deg C at 660 m. 3.4 mm recorded at 660 m on Wednesday.

      Deep low well off the coast, will be interesting to see how much rain and wind we will get.

      GOES image later Thursday am.

     Thursday Noon, 12:00 Hrs. +8 Deg C at 660 m. 12.2 mm recorded at 660 m.

      Friday 13:00 Hrs. +9 Deg C at 660 m. 10.6 mm recorded at 660 m.

      Saturday Noon. +6 Deg C at 660 m. 2.4 mm recorded at 660 m.


      Sunday Noon. +5 Deg C with 8.3 mm recorded at 660 m.

      Low off the coast this am, weakening as it moves inland.





VIDEOS:

What works for five avalanche professionals: Bruce Jamieson


ARTICLES:

3 Dead, 3 Missing on Ecuador Volcano: Chimborazo

Exposure and avalanches have killed trekkers in Northern India: Indian Express

10 trekkers dead, 6 missing after storm cycle in Northern India: Uttarakhand

Early season avalanche activity in Cottonwood Canyon: UAC

Swiss Glaciers continue to melt despite better year: Swiss News

18 Oct 2021

October 18, 2021

      PAST WEEK:

      Monday October 11, 2021. 12:00 Hrs. -1 Deg C at 1835 m.

      Tuesday October 12, 2021. 12:00 Hrs. -4 Deg C  at 1835 m. +4 Deg c in the valley.

      Wednesday October 13, 2021. 12:00 Hrs. -3 Deg C at 1835 m.

      Thursday October 14, 2021. 12:00 Hrs. 0 Deg C at 1835 m.

      Friday October 15, 2021. 13:00 Hrs. 0 Deg C at 1835 m.

      Saturday October 16, 2021. 12:00 Hrs. +1 Deg C at 1835 m.

      Sunday October 17, 2021. 14:00 Hrs. +1 Deg C at 1835 m.

                  GOES image from same time frame as above image.


      From the archives, Saturday October 17, 2020. 12:00 Hrs. +1 Deg C at 1835 m. 


Weather Observations for October 18, 2021 taken at 06:00 Hours.

2180 meters      -3, Winds were 20-35 KPH SE--Whistler Peak 
1835 meters      -2, Winds were   5-10 KPH SE--Round House
1650 meters       0,  2.2 mm in 12 Hrs, 21.2 mm in 24 Hrs --Pig Alley
  660 meters     +5, Valley Temp, Max temp Yesterday was +7.9, 29 mm of precip yesterday


     As of 07:00 Hrs this am we have overcast skies and variable visibility.

FORECAST:

A weak upper ridge will bring a mixed bag of weather in a Southerly flow aloft for today. Mostly cloudy skies this am and some sunny breaks in the pm. The freezing level will hover in the 1600 meter range with a high of around 1800 m, low of 1300 m tonight. Tuesday is looking dry with a mix of sun and cloud. Another wet day on Wednesday as a deep low (952 hPa forecasted) moves down the coast into Thursday. 40-60  mm possible from this event with seasonable temperatures and strong winds.  A few weaker frontal bands will push through Friday into Sunday, with slightly cooler temperatures. A La Nina pattern with the snow pack building in the upper elevations. Guesstimates: 0-trace by Tuesday am, trace-1 mm by Wednesday am, 8-14 mm by Thursday am, 35-45 mm by Friday am, 4-8 mm by Saturday am, 15-20 mm by Sunday am, 15-20 mm by Monday am.


      GOES image from this am.


      High pressure building for today with mostly cloudy skies.







      Southerly flow aloft for today.


       Low moves down the coast and high shifts East. 

 




      Upper trough for Wednesday with warmish temperatures and precipitation.

      Active pattern for Wednesday, wet and breezy.

      Deep low in the Pacific, wet Southerly flow for Thursday.

      Deep low gets closer on Thursday.




      Low will send rain our way Thursday as well. Could be a soaker!


      Long wave trough developing into the weekend.



     Looking wet Saturday.

      Likely a wet day on Sunday as well, 



      AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

      Grizzly Bear (just right and up of centre) released this avalanche below.      Bryce Anderson Image

      Grizzly accidental, Treaty Glacier. North Coast Mountains.               Bryce Anderson Image


      Na Sz 2 wet loose Mt Cook, NZ area.                                                                     R. Lane Pic


      Recent Sz 4 Na near Mt Cook, NZ.                                                                                   Kyle Pic


      Sz 2 Na wet loose Fiordland, NZ.                                                                         David Ewing Pic


      Avalanche Advisory: New Zealand


      INFORMATION & OBSERVATIONS:

      Last day in the Park. Noon. +7 Deg C in the valley.

      Fall sunset Lake Simcoe, High on Monday was +22.6 Deg C.


      Tuesday evening, 17:30 hrs. -4 Deg C. 2.1 mm recorded at 660 m Tuesday.

      Wednesday Noon. +6 Deg C in the valley.

      Thursday noon. +6 Deg C at 660 m. 1.2 mm recorded at 660 m.

       Friday 13:00 Hrs. +7 Deg C in the valley. 13.1 mm recorded at 660 m.


      Saturday am,  weak Atmospheric River moving onto the West Coast.

      Saturday Noon. +7 Deg C at 660 m. 34.9 mm recorded at 660 m Saturday.


         Looking promising for the upcoming season which officially starts in 38 Days at WB.


      Sunrise Sunday at 07:37 Hrs. +1 Deg C at 1835 m.


      Sunday 14:00 Hrs. +7 Deg C at 660 m. 29 mm recorded at 660 m on Sunday.



VIDEOS:

Ski Patrol Magic: Kicking Horse


ARTICLES:

Avalanche buries hiker on Crow's Pass Trail: Alaska

Early Season Avalanche Discussion: Colorado

Avalanche Canada Foundation Fundraiser: BRAAP it UP

Eight reasons why you should take a Companion Rescue Skills Course: Avalanche Canada

ENSO La Nina update: October 14, 2021

The Upcoming Winter: La Nina is Back