Wayne Flann Avalanche Blog

19 Oct 2020

October 19, 2020

PAST WEEK:

Monday October 12, 2020. 12:00 Hrs. 0 Deg C with a 10-15 KPH SE wind. + 9 in the valley.

Tuesday October 13, 2020. 12:00 Hrs. 0 Deg C with a 25-50 KPH ENE wind. + 5 in the valley.

Satellite image from the same timeline as above.

Wednesday October 14, 2020. 12:00 Hrs.

Satellite image from the same timeframe as above.

Thursday October 15, 2020. 12:00 Hrs. - 2 with a 5-10 KPH S breeze. +7 in the valley.

Satellite image from the same timeframe as above.

Friday October 16, 2020. 12:00 Hrs. + 5 with a 25-45 KPH SW wind. + 7 in the valley.

Satellite image from same timeframe as above.

Saturday October 17, 2020. 12:00 Hrs. + 1 with a 5-15 KPH West wind. + 8 in the valley.

Satellite image from the same timeframe.

Sunday October 18, 2020. 12:00 Hrs. + 2 with a 10-25 South wind. + 5 in the valley.

Satellite image from the same time frame.

Weather Observations for October 19, 2020 taken at 06:00 Hours.

2180 meters -1.5, Winds were 40-55 KPH SSW--Whistler Peak
1835 meters +1, Winds were 20-40 KPH SSW--Round House
1650 meters +2, 1.3 mm in 12 hrs, 6.3 mm in 24 hrs. --Pig Alley
660 meters. +7, Max temp yesterday was + 7, 8.8 mm recorded yesterday

As of 07:15 Hrs this am we have overcast skies and variable visibility.

FORECAST:

Unsettled weather for today in a Northwest flow aloft. Cool cloudy conditions with the occasional shower. Tuesday will be mostly cloudy but dry with a good chance of a sunny breaks in the afternoon. A weak frontal band pushes through early Wednesday with periods of light precipitation, sunny breaks following the fast exit of the front. Thursday will be dry but cloudy and slightly cooler. Models diverge on the outcome for Friday as there is potential for a vigorous cool low to bring precipitation to the area on Friday. This system will likely exit south quickly with the ridge rebuilding on Saturday, with mostly sunny weather into Sunday. Clouds push back in on Sunday before another weak front on Monday. Guesstimates: Trace-1 mm by Tuesday am, 1-3 mm by Wednesday am, 0 mm by Thursday am, 0-trace by Friday am, 5-10 mm by Saturday am, 0 mm by Sunday am.

GOES IR image from this am.

Cool cloudy conditions with the high off the coast, Northwest flow.

Fronts along the coast.

Mostly cloudy Tuesday, chance of a sunny break in the afternoon.

Except for some rain early Wednesday am, pattern remains.

Dry unsettled flow continues into Thursday.

Low moves down the coast on Friday.

Low moves down & off the coast Saturday, hopefully we will see a nice day.

Sunday will hopefully be a nice day as well. Models are not in agreement for the weekend.

AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

Spring cycle in New Zealand. Article below.

INFORMATION & OBSERVATIONS:

Sunrise Monday 07:30 Hrs. - 4 at 2240 m.

Just after sunrise Tuesday, 07:35 Hrs. -2 at 1835 m. Snowing in the valley.

Wednesday morning 08:00 Hrs. -3 with a 15-30 KPH South wind.

Thursday morning 08:00 Hrs. -4 with a 5-10 KPH SSW breeze at 2180 m.

Southern Migration.

17:00 Hs Friday, + 4 with a 15-25 KPH SW wind.

Lake Superior.

08:00 Hrs Saturday. 0 Deg C with a 10-30 South wind.

Thunder Bay Sunrise.

Sunrise Sunday morning, 07:39 Hrs. 0 Deg with a 10-30 SW wind.

That is a lot of snow geese. Saskatchewan.

Snowing in Canmore on Sunday.

Arva Canada would like to help fund raise for the wayneflanavalancheblog and are offering a silent auction of the

Evo 5, Spark 240 Probe, Access TS shovel and Reactor 18 Airbag with canister. Opening bid is $949 plus taxes.

Email your offer to atmrecyclingmike@gmail.com Other ARVA products are available at this e mail.

ARTICLES:

Avalanche 'Large enough to destroy a forest' in Aoraki/Mt Cook National Park: New Zealand

Snow sheds are just one part of Rogers Pass extensive avalanche program: 134 Slide Paths

B.C. pro skiers raise red flags, demand recall on avalanche safety gear failure: City News

2020 Snow and Avalanche Workshops in the U.S. Backcountry

The mechanical origin of snow avalanche dynamics and flow regime transitions: Cryosphere

Ortovox's Beacon Retirement Program removes over 700 outdated beacons: snews

12 Oct 2020

October 12, 2020

PAST WEEK:

Monday October 5, 2020. 12:00 Hrs. + 11 with a 10-20 KPH SE wind. + 14 in the valley.

Satellite image from the same timeframe as above image.

Tuesday October 6, 2020. 12:00 Hrs. + 12 with a 5-15 KPH South wind. + 16 in the valley.

Satellite image from the same timeframe as above image.

Wednesday October 7, 2020. 12:00 Hrs. + 13 with a 5-10 KPH N breeze. + 17 in the valley.

Satellite image from same timeframe as above image.

Thursday October 8, 2020. 12:00 Hrs. + 7 with a 15-30 KPH SE wind. + 14 in the valley.

Satellite image from the same timeframe as above image.

Friday October 9, 2020. 12:00 Hrs. + 4 with a 20-50 KPH ESE wind. + 11 in the valley.

Satellite image from the same timeframe as above image.

Big picture Friday afternoon.

Saturday October 10, 2020. 12:00 Hrs. 0 Deg C with a 25-45 KPH SSW wind. + 11 in the valley.

Satellite image from same timeframe as above image.

Sunday October 11, 2020. 14:30 Hrs. - 2 with a 15-30 KPH ESE wind. + 6 in the valley.

Weather Observations for October 12, 2020 taken at 06:00 Hours.

2180 meters -4, Winds were 20-25 KPH N--Whistler Peak
1835 meters -2, Winds were 15-20 KPH SW--Round House
1650 meters -1, 10.5 mm in 12 hrs, 17.2 mm in 24 hrs. --Pig Alley
660 meters. +2, Max temp yesterday was + 7.5, 11.2 mm recorded yesterday

As of 07:15 Hrs this am we have clear skies and unlimited visibility. Valley cloud.

FORECAST:

Unsettled weather for today, sunny this am with cloud moving in later today in a Westerly flow aloft. Vigorous front arrives onshore tonight with some strong winds and fluctuating freezing levels into Tuesday. More snow for the alpine!! This system should push through by Tuesday evening bringing a dry but cloudy Wednesday. Weak ridge for Thursday with unsettled weather. Models are not aligned for Friday into the weekend but good chance a trough pushes through Friday with periods of light rain. Saturday will likely be wet as well before some ridging on Sunday. Guesstimates: 5-10 mm by Tuesday am, 5-15 mm by Wednesday am, 0-trace by Thursday am, 0-2 mm by Friday am, 5-10 mm by Saturday am, 5-10 mm by Sunday am.

GOES IR image from this am.