Wayne Flann Avalanche Blog

26 Nov 2020

November 26, 2020

PAST FEW DAYS: OPENING DAY November 26, 2020

Monday November 23, 2020. 12:00 Hrs. -4 with a 5-20 KPH ENE wind. +1 in the valley.

Satellite image from the same timeframe.

Tuesday November 24, 2020. 13:00 Hrs. -3 ESE wind. +1 in the valley.

Satellite image from the same timeframe.

Wednesday November 25, 2020. 12:00 Hrs. -4 with a 5-10 KPH SSW breeze. + 2 in the valley.

Satellite image from the same timeframe.

Weather Observations for November 26, 2020 taken at 06:00 Hours.

2180 meters -8, Winds were 25-30 KPH SW--Whistler Peak
1835 meters -7, Winds were 5-20 KPH S--Round House
1650 meters -7, trace in 12 hrs, 6.0 cm in 24 hrs. Base 86 cm--Pig Alley
660 meters. 0, Max temp yesterday was +3.8, 1.7 mm recorded yesterday

As of 07:15 Hrs this am we have high overcast with unlimited visibility.

FORECAST:

A weak frontal band will bring overcast skies in a Westerly flow aloft. Warm front will bring some light precipitation to the area around noon, a trailing cold front will bring light precipitation into Friday. Upper trough for Friday with light precipitation for most of the day with a pulse of moderate precipitation Friday night in a SW flow aloft. Some light precip Saturday morning with a drying trend for Saturday into Sunday. Freezing level will hover in the 800-1200 m range.

Guesstimates:4-8 cm by Friday morning, 15-20 cm by Saturday morning, 0-trace by Sunday morning.

GOES IR image from this am.

Weak trough for today with a rising FL. 1000-1200 m.

Fronts along the coast.

Upper trough for Friday.

Drying trend Saturday.

AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

Old activity in the Brandywine Area. Likely older than 72 Hours. Al Collis Pic

INFORMATION & OBSERVATIONS:

Monday sunrise was at 07:38 Hrs. -6 with a 5-10 KPH ENE breeze. -2 in the valley.

Front on Tuesday pushed through much too quickly.

Snow stake at 1650 meters Tuesday afternoon. 22 cm by Wednesday morning. Base 87 cm.

Wednesday sunrise, 07:41 Hrs. -7 with a 5-10 KPH South breeze.

Looking like the place to be Wednesday Afternoon.

Decent sledding in the Brandywine Area Wednesday Nov 25, 2020. Al Collis Pic

It was an awesome day. Brandywine early season Sledding. Al Collis Pic

Probe in this area HS175, 65 CMHN, then there is a 5 cm wet layer of snow, after that alternating old early-season melt freeze crusts(5) to the old ice.

LOCAL AVALANCHE CANADA MIN REPORTS:

Steep Creek: Nov 22, 2020

Cowboy Ridge Soft Slab: Nov 24, 2020

VIDEOS:

Whistler snow forecast from November 25, 2020: David Jones

ARTICLES:

Steep enough to Slide: Powder Cloud

Welcome to the backcountry: WIKM

Avalanche Canada producing advisories as of Nov 25, 2020, at top of sidebar: Sea to Sky

Intro to avalanche safety: REI

A big year for avalanche beacons: SGB Media

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23 Nov 2020

November 23, 2020

PAST WEEK:

Monday November 16, 2020. 12:00 Hrs. -3 with a 10-20 KPH SE wind. +1 in the valley.

Satellite image from the same timeframe as above.

Tuesday November 17, 2020. 12:00 Hrs. 0 Deg C with a 30-65 KPH wind. 0 Deg C in the valley.

Same time frame as above image.

Wednesday November 18, 2020. 12:00 Hrs. -3 with 0-5 KPH variable breeze. +2 in the valley.

Satellite image from the same timeframe.

Thursday November 19, 2020. 13:00 Hrs. -6 with a 15-35 KPH West wind. +2 in the valley.

Satellite image from the same timeframe.

Friday November 20, 2020. 14:00 Hrs. -3 with a 20-45 KPH SE wind. +3 in the valley.

Satellite image from same timeframe.

Saturday November 21, 2020. 12:00 Hrs. -3 with a 5-10 KPH SE wind. +3 in the valley.

Satellite image from the same timeframe.

Sunday November 22, 2020. 13:00 Hrs. -4 with a 20-30 KPH ESE wind. 0 Deg C in the valley.

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Weather Observations for November 23, 2020 taken at 06:00 Hours.

2180 meters -6, Winds were 20-25 KPH S--Whistler Peak
1835 meters -5, Winds were 10-15 KPH SE--Round House
1650 meters -5, 2.0 cm in 12 hrs, 4.0 cm in 24 hrs. Base 70 cm--Pig Alley ?
660 meters. 0, Max temp yesterday was +0.5, 1.6 mm recorded yesterday

As of 07:00 Hrs this am we have overcast skies with unlimited visibility.

Precipitation recorded at 660 meters (Nesters) in the past week:

Nov 16, 2020 13.8 mm

Nov 17, 2020. 28.7 mm

Nov 18, 2020 10.2 mm

Nov 19, 2020. 6.0 mm

Nov 20, 2020. 5.5 mm

Nov 21, 2020. 0.2 mm

Nov 22, 2020. 1.6 mm

FORECAST:

A weak low will bring overcast skies with some very light precipitation this am in a Northwest flow aloft. The FL will hover in the 700-1000 meter range with steadier light precipitation tonight into Tuesday am. A stronger frontal band arrives Tuesday morning with light precipitation increasing to moderate precipitation by the afternoon in a Westerly flow aloft. The FL is expected to rise to 1600 meters as the front pushes through, with a weak upper level trough following on Wednesday bringing unsettled weather and the FL back down to near surface. Will likely get a few sunny breaks Wednesday afternoon with some weak ridging in the mix. Thursday opening day will likely be overcast with the freezing level at surface. A frontal band may arrive Thursday evening, with some light precip. Friday will see another strengthening frontal band push through with light to moderate precipitation and another spike in the FL. Models are not in agreement this far out, but will start posting more frequently as the mountain opens. Going with more snow in the alpine for Friday. The front pushes through Saturday morning with a weak high developing bringing unsettled weather (mix of sun and cloud) and seasonable temperatures. Unsettled Sunday morning with another weak trough pushing in by the afternoon. Guesstimates: 2-4 cm by Tuesday am, 20-30 cm above 1500 m by Wednesday am, trace-1 cm by Thursday am, 5-10 cm by Friday am, 15-30 cm by Saturday am, 1-4 cm by Sunday am.

GOES IR image from this am.