12 Nov 2018

November 12, 2018

   AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

    Colorado has seen many natural and human triggered avalanches in the past week.  CAIC Pic


    PAST WEEK:

    Monday evening Nov 5, 2018. Snowing lightly -2 Deg C at 17:00 hrs.

    Tuesday morning November 6, 2018. Sunrise 07:10 Hrs. -3.4 at 1835 meters. Making snow!!!

    Wednesday morning November 7, 2018.  07:00 Hrs -6.4 Deg C.

   Thursday am November 8, 2018. At 06:00 inverted temps, -2 at 2240 meters -4 at 660 meters.

    Friday morning, November 9, 2018. At 07:00 hrs the temperature was 0 Deg C at 1835 meters.

    Saturday 07:15 Hrs November 10, 2018, -5 at 1835 meters. Chairs on the Emerald Exp!!

    Sunday morning Remembrance Day 08:00 Hrs. Inverted temps again -1 at 1835, -3 at 660 meters.


Weather Observations for November 12, 2018  taken at 06:00 Hours.

2240 meters        +4, Winds were 10-15 KPH SE --Horstman Hut
1860 meters        +3, Winds were   5-10 KPH SE --Rendevous
1650 meters        +1, 0.0 mm of precip in 12 hrs   --Pig Alley
  660 meters         -1, Valley Temp, Max Temp Yesterday was +4.2, 0.0 mm of precip recorded yest


    As of 07:00 hrs this am we have broken cloud and unlimited visibility.


FORECAST:

The upper ridge is finally on a slow drift  Southeastward today and Tuesday in a Northwesterly flow aloft.. Expect a dry partly cloudy warm day, with the freezing level possibly topping out at 3500 meters. A weak front will push through Tuesday afternoon with a descending FL (> to 1500 m) and some light precipitation. Warm front followed by a cold front. Wednesday and Thursday are looking cloudy with some periods of moderate rain and the FL fluctuating from 1700-2000 meters.  The ridge rebounds on Friday with unsettled weather and strengthens for Saturday into Sunday with warming temperatures.  Beyond that there is a chance of cooler temperatures next week but likely a similar scenario as the coming week. Hopefully we will see a shift in the pattern by November 23.


    GOES IR image from this am.


    Warm High with a big low to the North.

    High pressure along the US coast.



    Fronts along the coast.

    High drifts Southeast, low slips down the coast.

    Warm front followed by a cold front Tuesday afternoon.


    Low still the influencer on Wednesday.


    Cloudy Wednesday with periods of rain.


    High starts pushing back.


     Lingering cloud Thursday with showers.


     Back to the persistent warm high pressure. 

    Ridge pushes back on Friday.

    Ridge strengthens Saturday.

    Sunny weather for Sunday.


    INFORMATION & OBSERVATIONS:

    High in the valley of +7.6 on Monday with 1.5 mm of rain recorded at 660 meters.

    Unsettled Tuesday morning. Snow line below 1500 meters. Showers mid day.

    Rainbow Glacier 2200 M NE Asp HS130 cm CTM 19 at 85 cm irregular break. Knife to pencil                  crust at 100 cm, moist below with tight grains 30 cm to ground. Wed Nov 7, 2018.

    First turns of the season on Rainbow Glacier. Snow was awesome!!! Wed Nov 7

    Wednesday afternoon. 130-200 cm NE aspects. 20 cm of dry light snow on a smooth surface.

    Thursday morning, a few clouds around.

    Warmed up below treeline on Thursday.

    Surface hoar at tree line developing near water sources.

    Friday afternoon, 16:00 Hrs -2.5 Deg C.

    Friday same time period in the valley +3 Deg C. Damp and uninspiring!!

    Saturday morning making snow on Upper Cruiser. -5 Deg C.

    A different perspective of the snow making.

    Stunning day Saturday.

    Remembrance Day. Net pic with a story.

    Sunday afternoon. Bluebird!!

    Sunday afternoon.

Some precipitation amounts for October taken at 660 meters over the past 8 years:

Date:        mm of Precip
2018                101.0
2017                155.7
2016                223.4
2015                  67.2
2014                252.6
2013                  19.3
2012                189.7
2011                  82.5
2010                  70.8


VIDEOS:

Bridger Range Snowpack: GNFAC

Ski Area Uphill & Boundary Travel in The PNW: Panel Discussion

Return to the Fray: Tobin Seagal

Old Super Bowl Commercial filmed in Whistler: Dusty's

Sled Cutting: Instagram

Ride Another Day: Flathead Avalanche Center


ARTICLES:

Active cycle in Colorado: CAIC

Avalanche survivor shares experience: Crag & Canyon

ENSO Report Nov 5, 2018: NOAA

Three hundred avalanche guards installed around Isafjordur: Iceland

Fernie will host the ISSW in 2020: October 4-9, 2020

Why terrain choice is the answer to avalanche avoidance: TetonSnowGeek

What should come first. Avalanche airbag or education: Mountain Sledder

5 Nov 2018

November 5, 2018

    AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

    Two of three climbers die in an avalanche on Mount Hicks, New Zealand. Article below. Net Pic

   An avalanche in the upper Dir Valley, Pakistan has killed 4 people. Article below.     Net Pic

     Avalanche injures skier on Mount Patterson. Article below.       Avalanche Canada MIN Pic


    PAST WEEK:

    Tuesday morning October 30, 2018. -3 at 08:00 hrs.

    Wednesday morning October 31, 2018. +2 Deg C at 08:00 Hrs.

    Thursday Morning November 1, 2018. Sunrise 08:02 Hrs +3 Deg C.

    Friday morning November 2, 2018.  + 1.2 Deg C at 08:00 Hrs. Hi of +6 Thursday.

    Saturday morning November 3, 2018. -0.5 as of 08:00 Hrs.

    Sunday morning November 4, 2018. -2 Deg C at 07:00 Hrs..


Weather Observations for November 5, 2018  taken at 06:00 Hours.

2240 meters        -4, Winds were 35-50 KPH SSE--Horstman Hut
1860 meters        -2, Winds were 10-20 KPH SE   --Rendevous
1650 meters         0, 1.8 mm of precip in 16 hrs     --Pig Alley
  660 meters       +6, Valley Temp, Max Temp Yesterday was +10, 8.2 mm of precip recorded yest

    As of 07:00 Hrs this am we have mostly a cloudy sky with a few breaks and variable visibility.



FORECAST:

A weak surface trough will bring some light intermittent showers today in a Northwesterly flow aloft. We can expect unsettled weather into Tuesday with fairly dry conditions. The freezing level will hover in the 1600 meter range today slowly dropping tonight to around 1400 meters. An upper level ridge will push in on Tuesday night and will likely remain in the area until Friday. Low may push into the area Friday! Northerly flow will bring a drop in the freezing level for Wednesday and the FL could go as low as 1000 metes during night time hours. May see a few spikes in the FL with daytime heating but certainly looking colder than it has been for the remainder of the week. Long range models are not consistent beyond Friday but the trend could be for a dry period into early next week. Some cloud has the potential for coming over the top of the ridge for unsettled weather Friday with a slight chance of some very light intermittent precip. Likely nice on Saturday and unsettled Sunday. Time will tell!!


    GOES IR image from this am.

    Warm high still in the Pacific, Aleutian Low and Arctic Front.





    Drying trend.


 Highs & Lows in the Pacific.


    High and Arctic Front getting closer, Low pushed away.




    High strengthening in our zone. FL could drop to the valley.





    Low pushing South.




    High Low Arctic Front stand off.







    INFORMATION & OBSERVATIONS:


    Monday afternoon, October 29, 2018.

   Tuesday 18:00 Hrs, -2 Deg C at 1860 meters.

   Wednesday morning 1835 meters.


    There were even a few breaks on Wednesday.

    Warm front on Thursday, Freezing level went to 2800+ meters. Hi of +3 at 2240 Meters.

   Moist day Thurs, some breaks. 24.8 mm of rain recorded at 660 meters with a high of +10.7 Deg C.

    Friday at 17:00 Hrs, cooling down again. 12.6 mm recorded at 660 meters on Friday.

   Saturday, rivers were up. 18.3 mm recorded at 660 meters.

    A few nice breaks on Sunday but mostly cloudy.

   Nice to see snow on Sunday.

   Big picture on Sunday.



Avalanche Canada MIN Report: Mount Patterson


VIDEOS:

Are Avalanche Bulletins Working: Henery Finn

Do avalanche airbags lead to riskier choices: Pascal Haegli


ARTICLES:

Four people killed in an avalanche in Chitral area: Pakistan

Two climbers die in an avalanche in New Zealand: Mount Hicks

Skier taken to hospital after being caught in an avalanche: Banff National Park

Skier caught in a small avalanche near Hoosier Pass: Colorado

Hoosier Pass: CAIC Report

Snow avalanche hits Tulail Village in Gurez: Kashmir

Get Avy savvy! Avalanche gear and training 101: Mountain Sledder

Avalanche workshop draws flurry of skiers: Wyoming

High avalanche danger in Southern Switzerland and Northern Italy: WePowder

Five Terrace Heroes recognized for avalanche rescue: Terrace Standard