22 Jan 2015

January 22, 2015

   Avalanche claims skier in Chamonix France--Vallee Blanche: Story below.             Internet Photo

    08:30 Hours Wednesday January 21, 2015.  Some clearing to the Southeast.

    Mid morning on Wednesday.

    Looks like a moist air mass heading our way!

          Glide cracks forming on Cornices, the warm weather may create collapses. Steve Reid Pic


Weather Observations for January 22, 2015; taken at 06:00 Hours.

2240 meters        -2, Winds were 30-40 KPH from the SSE
2180 meters        -1, Winds were 30-40 KPH from the SSW
1860 meters        -1, Winds were 15-25 KPH from the ESE
1835 meters         0, Winds were 5-15 KPH from the SSW
1650 meters        -1, 4 cm of new new snow, Base 156 cm
1550 meters        -2, 2 cm of new new snow, Base 126 cm,  Relative Humidity 98%.
  660 meters         0, Valley Temp, Max Temp Yest +2.3. o mm of precip, snow fell after 24:00 Hrs


   As of 07:00 Hours we have obscured skies with limited visibility.


For the forecast, a weakening front in a westerly flow will move through the area this morning bringing unsettled conditions for most of the day (mostly cloudy) with a freezing level rising to 1700 meters by this evening. Clouds from the approaching vigorous warm front will form this evening and the front should arrive early Friday morning with a freezing level rising to 2400 meters by Friday evening. The brunt of the precipitation will fall on Friday night into Saturday afternoon, with the possibility of 70-85 mil falling during that time frame. Totals for the complete event may reach 110 mm of rain, by Sunday morning. Yes, we have an atmospheric river event once again moving through our zone associated with a very warm air mass in a Southwesterly flow. Freezing levels for the event will be above the local peaks.  Sunday will be mostly cloudy with post frontal showers in the morning with the upper ridge gradually building for unsettled conditions into Sunday evening. Monday as of now looks blue bird with very warm temperatures. (FL 2800 meters)  Past Monday the ECMWF and GFS are portraying different forecasts, so more on next weak later.



    Satellite image form yesterday around 12:00 Hours.

    Lots of available moisture in the Pacific.

    What passed through last night.


    Battle of the High and Low!

   Moderate precipitation for Friday morning becoming heavy in the evening.

    Heavy precipitation Saturday all day easing to moderate by the evening.


    High will begin pushing the low out by Sunday afternoon.



Its a rain event, atmospheric river heading our way!!



ARTICLES:

Fatal Avalanche in the Vallee Blanche: France

Learn warning signs to avoid avalanches: Valley Journal

Two Lakes beneath the ice in Greenland, gone within 2 weeks: Science Daily

Avaluator-Is it any good for Predicting Avalanches?: Climb Big Mountains

Will to say No--How Seth Morrison manages risk in the backcountry: Freeskier

Je suis freeranddough (translation issue?, humour!): Pistehors.com


                              Skiing into the Blue Room, Photos by Erik Graham:




                    Recent Profile from the Spearhead.


Erik Graham Photo.
     Resistance probe and actual slide where avalanche occurred.







































Fracture Line profile on Horstman Peak. Picture below.


                       Horstman Peak Sa from January 20, 2015.                       Joe Hertz Photo





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