12 Oct 2016

October 12, 2016

                     Winter 2016-2017—What will it bring?

Lately many conversations lead to- What will it be like this winter? During the summer its easy to go on line and begin to read what scientists are saying about the up coming winter, requiring many hours of screen time . It seems that what ever you read it will change by the time winter arrives.  For instance the La Nina being predicted this summer is now looking like a La Nada winter. The blob has gone from decreasing in size to strengthening again. One thing for certain is that the world is in a warming phase. As of now NOAA is predicting a neutral phase for the next few months bordering on a La Nina phase.

   Meteorological winter is from December to February so there is still time for more data to                   influence the predictions. 

     I have included a glossary at the bottom of the page for your viewing pleasure if you are
curious to learn the lingo. 

     We have had La Nada winters with decent conditions and ones, with less than a desirable             outcome.

    The unpredictability in a neutral phase leaves the crystal ball foggy 

    or like riding in a stratus layer.

Presently, the weather pattern is showing signs of an early winter, it would be nice for the lows to keep coming out of the North with just enough influence from the arctic outbreaks to keep our snow pack dry and manageable. 

My gut feeling is we are going to get above average snow in October thru December, even with a La Nada phase. Que Sera Sera—What ever will be, will be. 

    As far as Jan into Apr, will try and keep my finger on the winter pulse but only time will tell.

    One thing is certain, Winter arrives December 21, 2016 at 02:44 Am.

El Nino:Wikipedia

La Nina: Wikipedia


Pacific Decadal Oscillation:Wikipedia

Stratus Layer: Wikipedia

    Play hard but play safe.

    Series of low pressure's heading our way!!! Remnants of Typhoon Songda adding to precip.

    Duffy Lake Tuesday October 11, 2016.

Weather Observations for October 12, 2016: taken at 06:00 Hours.

2240 meters    -4, Winds were 20-30 KPH SE--Horstman Hut
1835 meters    -2, Winds were   5-10 KPH SE --Roundhouse
1550 meters    -2, RH 63%  0.0 mm of rain      --Catskinner
  660 meters    -4, Valley Temp, Max Temp Yesterday was +9.6,  0.0 mm of Precip recorded yest

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