13 Sept 2021

September 13, 2021

      PAST WEEK:

      Monday September 6, 2021. 13:00 Hrs. +9 Deg C at 1835 m. +20 Deg C in the valley.

      Tuesday September 7, 2021. 13:00 Hrs. +17 Deg C at 1835 m.

      Wednesday September 8, 2021. 13:00 Hrs. +9 Deg C at 1835 m. +16 Deg C in the valley.

      Thursday September 9, 2021. 13:00 Hrs. +11 Deg C at 1835 m. +20 Deg C in the valley.

      Friday September 10, 2021. 13:00 Hrs. +10 Deg C at 1835 m. +22 Deg C in the valley.


      Saturday September 11, 2021. 13:00 Hrs. +9 Deg C at 1835 m. +14 Deg C in the valley.

      Sunday September 12, 2021. 14:00 Hrs. +9 Deg C.


Weather Observations for September 13, 2021 taken at 06:00 Hours.

2180 meters      +1, Winds were 5-15 KPH WNW--Whistler Peak ??
1835 meters      +4, Winds were   0-5 KPH SSW--Round House
1650 meters      +3,  0 mm in 12 Hrs, 0 mm in 24 Hrs --Pig Alley
  660 meters     +10, Valley Temp, Max temp Yesterday was +19.1, 0.9 mm of precip yesterday

      As of 06:45 Hrs (sunrise), this am we have clear skies, valley cloud and unlimited visibility.




FORECAST:

A weak ridge will bring a mix of sun and cloud for today in a West-North Westerly flow aloft. The freezing level will hover in the 3000-3500 meter level. A cool front arrives Tuesday with periods of light rain, weakening by Wednesday but still a chance of showers and a mix of sun and cloud. Some weak ridging into Thursday but could be mostly cloudy. A strong cold front arrives for Friday with light to moderate rain and snow in the upper elevations, freezing level could drop to Pig Alley. A cool upper trough will bring unsettled weather for the weekend. High looks to gain some ground by Monday.    Guesstimates: 0 mm by Tuesday am,  3-6 mm by Wednesday am, trace-2 mm by Thursday am, 0-trace mm by Friday am, 8-12 mm by Saturday am, 4-20 mm by Sunday am, trace-4 mm by Monday am.


Update to the forecast: The cold front arriving Friday is looking quite juicy, some models are calling for up to 65 mm Friday/Saturday. Still a good chance the FL could drop to 1500 m for a while. The brunt of the moisture could slide south of our zone. Looking more like an October storm than Mid September. 


              850 mb image for early Saturday am. Approximately 1500 m.


          Most of the precipitation may go south.





      GOES image from this am. Monday.


       Weak ridging today with a mix of sun and cloud, seasonable temperatures.





      West-North West Flow aloft.


         Weak cold front moves down the coast Tuesday with light rain.




       Very weak ridging, unsettled with the chance of some isolated showers for Wednesday.




        Weak ridge flattens, mostly cloudy for Thursday with some sunny breaks in the am.



      Strong cold front arrives Friday with rain and cold temperatures. Snow in the upper elevations.

      Not sure about Saturday, think it could be unsettled with showers. Time will tell!!


     Sunday will likely be unsettled with rain showers.


     AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

      Avalanche observation from Mt Cook. Skier triggered. September 8, 2021.          Jono Gillan Photo


      Natural Avalanche observed Mt Cook, Sept 11, 2021.                                         Jono Gillan Photo

       New Zealand Avalanche Advisory


     INFORMATION & OBSERVATIONS:

      Overlord Glacier Monday afternoon.

      Tuesday 13:00 Hrs, felt like summer. High of +28.7 Deg C.

      Wednesday, sunrise was at 06:37 Hrs. 1.0 mm recorded at 1650 m in the am. +7 Deg C at 1860 m.

      Thursday 13:00 Hrs. +20 Deg C in the valley. 2.8 mm recorded at 660 m Wednesday.

      Friday 13:00 Hrs. +22 Deg C in the valley.

      Sunrise Saturday, 06:42 Hrs. +6 Deg C at 1865 M. 0.7 mm recorded at 660 m.

      Sunday 14:00 Hrs. +19 Deg C. 0.9 mm recorded early Sunday am at 660 m.



VIDEOS:

Not sure where this came from: Avalanche

Snow Boarder avoids an: Avalanche


ARTICLES:

Triggering Mechanisms of Gayari Avalanche: Pakistan

La Nina Watch, Sept 9, 2021: NOAA

What it means to live, and die, in the mountains: Climbing

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