25 Oct 2021

October 25, 2021

     PAST WEEK:

      Monday October 18, 2021. 12:30 Hrs. 0 Deg C at 1835 m.

      Tuesday October 19, 2021. 12:00 Hrs. +4 Deg C at 1835 m.

      Wednesday October 20, 2021. 12:00 Hrs. +1 Deg C at 1835 m.

      Thursday October 21, 2021. 12:00 Hrs. +3 Deg C at 1835 m.

      Friday October 22, 2021. 13:00 Hrs. +2 Deg C at 1835 m.

     Saturday October 23, 2021. 12:00 Hrs. 0 Deg C at 1835 m.


      Sunday October 25, 2021. 12:00 Hrs. 0 Deg C at 1835 m.



Weather Observations for October 25, 2021 taken at 06:00 Hours.

2180 meters      -4, Winds were 70-90 KPH SE--Whistler Peak 
1835 meters      -2, Winds were 20-50 KPH ESE--Round House
1650 meters       0,  ? mm in 12 Hrs, ? mm in 24 Hrs --Pig Alley
  660 meters     +4, Valley Temp, Max temp Yesterday was +6.8, 8.3 mm of precip yesterday


      As of 07:00 Hrs this am we have overcast skies, limited visibility, and snowing at 1835 m.


FORECAST:

A weakening low will bring wet and windy weather for today in a Southwesterly flow aloft. The freezing level is around 1600 m, likely rising to 1800 m this afternoon. We can expect wet weather over the next few days with snow in the alpine and possibly down to 1400 m. Tuesday will see a trough push through in a Westerly flow aloft. More of the same Wednesday. Some models diverge on Thursday but going with the European model of more rain, possibly an atmospheric river event, to our south.. Looking like unsettled weather for Friday into the weekend with a mix of sun and cloud. Guesstimates: 15-30 mm by Tuesday am, 15-20 mm by Wednesday am, 20-30 mm by Thursday am, 10-20 mm by Friday am, 0-Trace by Saturday am, 0 mm by Sunday am, 0 mm by Monday am. These numbers are going off the European models, but last weeks series of storms ended up being less than the forecasted numbers. 


      GOES image this am.

       Weakening low on the coast with warming temperatures at 1600 m.






     Southwesterly flow aloft this am.


      Upper trough for Tuesday with more precipitation.







      Westerly flow for Wednesday with periods of precipitation, slightly cooler. 




        Models diverge on Thursday, but it could be wet.


      Looks wet on this image.


     Weak ridging on Friday.

      Ridge strengthens Saturday.


      Ridging for Sunday.



     AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:


      3 Dead, 3 missing after an avalanche on Chimborazo Volcano, Ecuador. Article below.  Net Pic


     Rescuers retrieve bodies after exposure and avalanches kill trekkers in Northern India.        Net Pic


      Spring cycle in New Zealand. Recent wet loose to slab near Mt Cook. Oct 20, 2021. Will Pic



     INFORMATION & OBSERVATIONS:

      Cloud cover dissipated quickly on Monday. At 11:00 Hrs it was -6 Deg C at 2240 m.

      Monday 12:30 Hrs. +8 Deg C at 660 m. 

      Noon Tuesday, +7 Deg C at 660 m.


      Noon Wednesday. +8 Deg C at 660 m. 3.4 mm recorded at 660 m on Wednesday.

      Deep low well off the coast, will be interesting to see how much rain and wind we will get.

      GOES image later Thursday am.

     Thursday Noon, 12:00 Hrs. +8 Deg C at 660 m. 12.2 mm recorded at 660 m.

      Friday 13:00 Hrs. +9 Deg C at 660 m. 10.6 mm recorded at 660 m.

      Saturday Noon. +6 Deg C at 660 m. 2.4 mm recorded at 660 m.


      Sunday Noon. +5 Deg C with 8.3 mm recorded at 660 m.

      Low off the coast this am, weakening as it moves inland.



From South Coast Touring--Conny Amelunxen:


  Hey, Just a heads up that there is more than enough snow in the alpine to produce avalanches. In the Meager group we saw a small cycle to size 2 that occurred on about Oct 06. Over this last weekend there was another large avalanche cycle with avalanches up to size 3. They are starting above 2000 m and have been observed to run as low as 1500 m. It is possible that other slides in the area have reached valley bottom. There is currently over a 150 cm (water equivalent) on the glaciers and over 70 cm of snow measured above 1800 m elevation. The attached shot is a size 2.5/3 on Plinth (WSW aspect, 2500 m). The crown is a wind drift but I would estimate almost 4 meters deep.


VIDEOS:

What works for five avalanche professionals: Bruce Jamieson


ARTICLES:

3 Dead, 3 Missing on Ecuador Volcano: Chimborazo

Exposure and avalanches have killed trekkers in Northern India: Indian Express

10 trekkers dead, 6 missing after storm cycle in Northern India: Uttarakhand

Early season avalanche activity in Cottonwood Canyon: UAC

Swiss Glaciers continue to melt despite better year: Swiss News

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