15 Nov 2021

November 15, 2021

      PAST FEW DAYS:

      Thursday November 11, 2021. 12:00 Hrs. 0 Deg C at 1835 m.

      Friday November 12, 2021. 12:00 Hrs. 0 Deg C at 1835. Snowing lightly.


      Saturday November 13, 2021. 12:00 Hrs. -3 Deg C at 1835 m.

      Sunday November 14, 2021. 12:00 Hrs. 0 Deg C at 1835 m. 



Weather Observations for November 15, 2021 taken at 06:00 Hours.

2180 meters       0, Winds were 50-70 KPH S--Whistler Peak 
1835 meters     +1, Winds were 15-40 KPH ESE--Round House
1650 meters     +2,  38 mm in 12 Hrs, 80 mm in 24 Hrs --Pig Alley
  660 meters     +2, Valley Temp, Max temp Yesterday was +3.5, 54.7 mm of precip yesterday

      As of 07:00 Hrs this am we have overcast skies and variable visibility.


FORECAST:

Warm front quickly followed by a cold front will continue to push through this morning in a SouthWesterly flow aloft. The freezing level is sitting around 2000 meters and is expected to slowly drop to the surface by tonight. Moderate/heavy precipitation should ease by later this afternoon with cooler air moving in by early Tuesday am. Lingering cloud this evening into early Tuesday morning will likely bring periods of light snow down to the valley. High pressure will bring a mix of sun and cloud with seasonable temperatures Tuesday. At this time Wednesday is looking dry but mostly cloudy. A weak trough will bring  periods of light snow Thursday. Weak ridging possibly by Friday but more on that in Thursday's post. Guesstimates: 25-35 mm with 2-4 cm of snow in the valley by Tuesday am, 0 mm by Wednesday am, trace-2 cm by Thursday am, 2-5 cm by Friday am.


      GOES IR Image this am.

     West-Southwest flow aloft this am.

      We got a direct hit. 




       Still on the warmish side, cooling by this afternoon. 850 mb equates to around 1500 m.









      High pushes in for Tuesday with seasonable temperatures.







        Low will likely send cloud our way but should stay dry Wednesday.




      Low will send a trough with some snow for Thursday.



.       Light precipitation is expected Thursday.

      Weak ridging again Friday with a mix of sun and cloud.


      AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

      An avalanche in Nepal has injured 11?, killed livestock. Articles and video below.         Net Pic


      Skier Remote, Nov 12, 2021. Colorado. CAIC REPORT.                                Kevin Nikolaides Pic



      INFORMATION & OBSERVATIONS:

     Thursday Nov 11. 09:30 Hrs. -2 Deg C at 1865 m.

     Warm  front slowly pushed into the area late Thursday morning. Started precipitating around 15:30.

      Brunt of the moisture went South. Freezing level spiked Thursday. High of +1.6 Deg C at 2240 m.


      Friday 07:30 Hrs. +1 Deg C at 1860 m. High there was +3.7 overnight. 21 mm recorded at 1650 m.


      Friday morning. Same time frame as above image.


     Rain runnels in the alpine. Friday afternoon. Temperature dropping, -5 Deg C at 2240 m 15:30 Hrs.


      Saturday Sunrise, 07:22 Hrs. -7 Deg C at 2180 m. 


      Saturday Morning big picture. AR is heading our way. 

    Environment Canada is calling for snow prior to the rain event with the freezing level rising tonight.


      Early Saturday am. 

      GOES 17 image Saturday am.

     Snowing at 1650 m Saturday. 18:00 Hrs. -2 Deg C with 3.1 mm since 06:00 Hrs. 

      Transition from snow to rain early Sunday. -1 at 10:30 Hrs Sat---+3 by 03:00 Hrs Sunday. 

      Sunday 08:00 Hrs. Wet snow. 0 Deg C, max last night +1 Deg C At 1835 m.

      Sunday am.

          Warmer air to our South Sunday am, alpine is getting hammered. -1 at 2180 m 08:00 Hrs.

      Sunday afternoon. River of Golden Dreams. Could look different today with this Rainfall Warning

     Warm Atmospheric River events suck. 10 more sleeps until lift access.
      Long range forecast is looking good for opening day. 
      Seasonable temperatures and snow are in the mix.


LOCAL MIN REPORTS:

Cayoosh Creek: Nov 11, 2021

Pauls Ridge: Nov 11, 2021

Red Heather: Nov 13, 2021


VIDEOS:

Large Avalanche off Tukuche Mountain: Nepal

How to Practice Avalanche Rescue: AIARE

Electric Sled Skiing: Taiga


ARTICLES:

Glacier National Park Avalanche Bulletin: Extreme

11 injured in avalanche in Mustang: Nepal

150 Yaks go missing in above event: Tuckuche Mountain

The early Season Snowpack-How it affects your winter: Beyond our Peak

Early Season Conditions: Avalanche Canada

Avalanche Canada Foundation Fundraiser: Party for Powder 

Avalanche incident in the Bridger Range: Montana

La Nina Strengthening, ENSO Report: Nov 11, 2021

60 Years of avalanche control in Rogers Pass: Revelstoke Review

The"Hell Yes, or No Way" approach to avalanche terrain management: Backcountry

How wildfires affect the avalanche conditions: Avalanche Canada

COVID rules different in some countries: France

Some unvaccinated will be in lockdown: Austria

So you want to become a backcountry skier?: Washington Post

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