YESTERDAY:
Early morning light Friday am.Lower slopes of Cowboy ridge.
FORECAST:
Surface ridge continues to strengthen, with high cloud in a Northerly flow aloft. The freezing level has spiked today and is already at 3000+ m. Looking cloudy all day on Saturday. Pattern continues into Sunday with possible sunny breaks in the morning but mostly cloudy conditions will prevail. Surface ridge strengthens Monday and we should see mostly sunny skies with slightly cooler temperatures. Unsettled weather continues into Friday, may see a shift in the pattern and hopefully a trough arrives with cooler temperatures and some much needed snow. Guesstimates: 0 cm until Friday Jan 28th afternoon into Saturday. A short wave trough is forecasted to slide down the West Coast of Vancouver Island on Tuesday. Some models are calling for some snow flurries, doubt if we will see anything but unsettled weather and cooler temperatures.
Dirty High amplitude ridge with very warm temperatures for today.
Northerly flow aloft.
Surface high Monday with slightly cooler temperatures mid mountain. Sunny.
AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:
Sa Sz 1.5 9th Hole, MIN report below. Lucian Rinkeha ImageDebris under Ladies First.
Avalanche Summary
On Thursday, a few natural wet loose avalanches size 1-2 were observed at treeline and below during the storm as well as some small loose dry at higher elevations. Ski cutting triggered a couple storm slabs size 1-1.5 and explosives triggered several size 2 storm slabs and cornices. The storm slabs appear to typically be 20-30 cm thick but up to 50 cm in loaded terrain.
Parts of the region are currently under a Special Public Avalanche Warning (SPAW). Check out this new blog post for additional information.
Snowpack Summary
At higher elevations, 15-30 cm of recent storm snow has buried the widespread January 16 melt-freeze crust which extends to around 2100 m. There have also been some observations of surface hoar sitting on the crust on polar aspects at treeline and in the alpine north of Pemberton but this does not appear to be widespread. The most recent storm snow has formed reactive wind slabs in exposed high elevation terrain. At lower elevations, the upper snowpack is moist or wet from the recent rain event.
The depth of the early December crust/facet layer is highly variable through the region but appears to be typically down 100-200 cm. Some operators are showing the depth as low as 60 cm in shallow snowpack areas and as deep as 3 m in wind loaded terrain. The weak layer is most prominent between 1700 and 2100 m. The layer has been dormant recently but is a concern for the period of major warming and sun forecast over the weekend. The most likely place to trigger it would be in thin, rocky snowpack areas where it is shallowest.
INFORMATION & OBSERVATIONS:
Early morning ski tourers on the designated uphill route.Breakable crust lower down on Blackcomb Glacier.
LOCAL MIN REPORTS:
9th Hole windslab, skier triggered 1.5: Jan 21, 2022
VIDEOS:
North Shore Snowpack: Jan 21, 2022
Roof Avalanche: Ontario
ARTICLES:
Untrustworthy snow--Explaining the SPAW: Avalanche Canada
Warmth spreads avalanche danger through Souther B.C., Western Alberta: Avalanche Canada
Avalanche Deaths persist in Colorado, across the US despite improved forecasting: White Death
Advanced snow cover simulations found to improve avalanche forecasts: MTI