Wayne Flann Avalanche Blog: Weather

22 Jan 2022

January 22, 2022

YESTERDAY:

Early morning light Friday am.

Awesome light in the am. Spindrift off pea to the right.

There were some nice turns to be had in Emerald Bowl.

Lower slopes of Cowboy ridge.

Nice breaks later in the am.

14:30 Hrs 2180 m, -3 with a 20-30 KPH NW wind. Valley cloud lifting.

14:30 Hrs at 1835 m, +2 Deg C with a 1-5 KPH NE breeze.

Weather Observations for January 22, 2022 taken at 06:00 Hours.

2240 meters +3, Winds were 15-20 KPH N--Horstman Hut

2180 meters +3, Winds were 10-15 KPH N--Whistler Peak

1860 meters +3, Winds were 5-15 KPH E--Rendezvous

1835 meters +5, Winds were 5-10 KPH S--Round House

1650 meters +2, 0 cm in 12 Hrs, 0 cm in 24 Hrs. Base 222 cm --Pig Alley

1570 meters. +3, 0 cm in 12 Hrs, 0 cm in 24 Hrs. Base 161 cm. Catskinner

660 meters +1, Valley Temp, Max temp Yesterday was +5.3, 0.0 mm of precip yesterday

As of 07:00 hrs this am we have overcast skies and unlimited visibility.

FORECAST:

Surface ridge continues to strengthen, with high cloud in a Northerly flow aloft. The freezing level has spiked today and is already at 3000+ m. Looking cloudy all day on Saturday. Pattern continues into Sunday with possible sunny breaks in the morning but mostly cloudy conditions will prevail. Surface ridge strengthens Monday and we should see mostly sunny skies with slightly cooler temperatures. Unsettled weather continues into Friday, may see a shift in the pattern and hopefully a trough arrives with cooler temperatures and some much needed snow. Guesstimates: 0 cm until Friday Jan 28th afternoon into Saturday. A short wave trough is forecasted to slide down the West Coast of Vancouver Island on Tuesday. Some models are calling for some snow flurries, doubt if we will see anything but unsettled weather and cooler temperatures.

GOES IR Image this am.

GOES 17 ABI image 2022/01/22. 05:00 Hrs.

Dirty High amplitude ridge with very warm temperatures for today.

Northerly flow aloft.

High still the dominant force on Sunday. Still warm. 850 mb map equates to around 1600 m.

Surface high Monday with slightly cooler temperatures mid mountain. Sunny.

Should see the sun come out on Monday.

AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

Sa Sz 1.5 9th Hole, MIN report below. Lucian Rinkeha Image

Debris in Ladies First from Jan 20. , Java. Sz 1 Xh Jan 21. Heli-bombing produced many holes.

Debris under Ladies First.

Slabs released on approach from Jan 20th avalanche control route.

One of the Sz 1 slabs that pulled out from Jan 20.

Old wet loose along the Rescue Road.

Old wet loose in the Poop Chutes. New WL noted in Lakeside in the pm, of Jan 21, 2022.

Avalanche control on Whistler produced Sz 1- Xe Xc storm slabs. Some Xc Sz 2. Sz 1 WL in the pm.

Xc cornice control produced up to Sz 2 results on Whistler.

Old frozen debris on Singing Pass Trail. Harmony Creek. Use caution. Jim Boudreau Pic

FROM AVALANCHE CANADA:

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, a few natural wet loose avalanches size 1-2 were observed at treeline and below during the storm as well as some small loose dry at higher elevations. Ski cutting triggered a couple storm slabs size 1-1.5 and explosives triggered several size 2 storm slabs and cornices. The storm slabs appear to typically be 20-30 cm thick but up to 50 cm in loaded terrain.

Parts of the region are currently under a Special Public Avalanche Warning (SPAW). Check out this new blog post for additional information.

Snowpack Summary

At higher elevations, 15-30 cm of recent storm snow has buried the widespread January 16 melt-freeze crust which extends to around 2100 m. There have also been some observations of surface hoar sitting on the crust on polar aspects at treeline and in the alpine north of Pemberton but this does not appear to be widespread. The most recent storm snow has formed reactive wind slabs in exposed high elevation terrain. At lower elevations, the upper snowpack is moist or wet from the recent rain event.

The depth of the early December crust/facet layer is highly variable through the region but appears to be typically down 100-200 cm. Some operators are showing the depth as low as 60 cm in shallow snowpack areas and as deep as 3 m in wind loaded terrain. The weak layer is most prominent between 1700 and 2100 m. The layer has been dormant recently but is a concern for the period of major warming and sun forecast over the weekend. The most likely place to trigger it would be in thin, rocky snowpack areas where it is shallowest.

INFORMATION & OBSERVATIONS:

Early morning ski tourers on the designated uphill route.

Water pipe has been repaired.

This image from January 18, 2022.

Transitioned from dry loose, to wind pressed from North Outflow, to breakable crust.

Breakable crust lower down on Blackcomb Glacier.

Catskinner weather plot (1570m) base is now at 161 cm as of 14:00 Hrs 2022/01/21.

Will be interesting to see if the warm temperatures affect the cornices.

LOCAL MIN REPORTS:

9th Hole windslab, skier triggered 1.5: Jan 21, 2022

VIDEOS:

North Shore Snowpack: Jan 21, 2022

Roof Avalanche: Ontario

ARTICLES:

Untrustworthy snow--Explaining the SPAW: Avalanche Canada

Warmth spreads avalanche danger through Souther B.C., Western Alberta: Avalanche Canada

Avalanche Deaths persist in Colorado, across the US despite improved forecasting: White Death

Advanced snow cover simulations found to improve avalanche forecasts: MTI

Marker Flexible Touring Goggles up for grabs. Send best avalanche shot to win. wwflann@me.com

21 Jan 2022

January 21, 2022

YESTERDAY:

Early Thursday am.

Waning Moon <click for explanation!

Unsettled weather later in the am.

Nice snow where it blew in.

Cloudier as the afternoon progressed.

Black Tusk

Later in the afternoon.

Weather Observations for January 21, 2022 taken at 06:00 Hours.

2240 meters -2, Winds were 20-35 KPH NNW--Horstman Hut

2180 meters -4, Winds were 20-35 KPH NNW--Whistler Peak

1860 meters 0, Winds were 5-10 KPH SW--Rendezvous

1835 meters -1, Winds were 5-15 KPH SW--Round House

1650 meters -3, trace in 12 Hrs, trace in 24 Hrs. Base 223 cm --Pig Alley

1570 meters. -3, trace in 12 Hrs, trace in 24 Hrs. Base 161 cm. Catskinner

660 meters 0, Valley Temp, Max temp Yesterday was +5.0, 0.0 mm of precip yesterday

As of 07:00 Hrs this am we have broken cloud and unlimited visibility.

FORECAST:

Ridge of high pressure will bring a mix of sun and cloud in a Northerly flow aloft. The freezing level is hovering near valley bottom, with some warm air aloft. Mixed bag of temperatures, FL likely to spike this afternoon to 2500 m. Valley cloud will be hanging around for a few days. Saturday is looking dry but cloudy. Sunday is mostly cloudy with some sunny breaks in the am. Monday is unsettled with mostly cloudy skies, sunny breaks in the am. No real change in the pattern until next Friday. Guesstimates 0 cm until Friday Jan 28, 2022. Long range models are calling for a more seasonable winter by then into February.

GOES IR image from this am.

GOES 17 ABI image 2022/01/21. 05:00 Hrs.

High pressure begins to push into the area today, warmer temps on the way.

Northerly flow aloft for today.

High strengthening, freezing level 3000 m +.

High blocking the lows, FL 3000+ meters. Likely to see fog and valley cloud.

Sunday am.

AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

An avalanche has killed a mountaineer in Slovakia. Article below. Net Pic

Avalanche mitigation on Whistler produced Sz 1-2 Xe Sc.

Symphony Chair

Avalanche mitigation on Blackcomb produced Sz 1 Xe Sc. This was a sympathetic release.

Sa Sz 1 Cricks Crack. Left a ski behind. Hiked up to retrieve it. Outside Lakeside Boundary

Lower Fracture line in Cricks Crack. Slabs yesterday 20-30 cm. Na Sz 1-1.5 wet loose observed.

FROM AVALANCHE CANADA:

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, explosives triggered three large cornices, none of which triggered slabs on the slopes below. Just north of the region on Tuesday, two human-triggered size 1-1.5 wind slabs were reported on NW-NE aspects at 1950 m. On Monday, a natural size 2 storm slab was reported on a SW aspect around 1800 m.

Snowpack Summary

At higher elevations, the recent storm snow has buried the widespread January 16 melt-freeze crust which extends to around 2100 m. There have also been some observations of surface hoar sitting on the crust north of Pemberton but this does not appear to be widespread. This surface hoar was observed on polar aspects at treeline and in the alpine. The most recent storm snow is expected to have formed reactive storm slabs in wind exposed high elevation terrain. Storm slabs may become more reactive and widespread on Friday as the recent storm snow settles rapidly with the warming. At lower elevations, the upper snowpack is moist or wet from the recent rain event.

The depth of the early December crust/facet layer is highly variable through the region but appears to be typically down 100-200 cm. Some operators are showing the depth as low as 60 cm in shallow snowpack areas and as deep as 3 m in wind loaded terrain. The weak layer is most prominent between 1700 and 2100 m. The layer has been dormant recently but is a concern for the period of major warming and sun forecast for the weekend. The most likely place to trigger it would be in thin, rocky snowpack areas where it is shallowest.

INFORMATION & OBSERVATIONS:

Moist snow at 1860 meters when the storm blew through.