Even in the creek the snow can be so beautiful. 

At 2280 meters it is -11, winds are 35-45 KPH from the south at 06:00. At 1550 meters the temperature is -7, 95% humidity and the barometer is steady. At pig alley the snow measurement is 2 cm. In the valley it is -1.

For the updated Avalanche Advisory click here: Avalanche Advisory

Thanks to Andor Tari for submitting this profile.

Interesting story submitted by Ryan Bougie from our neighbours to the south.

Click here: Teton Pass

Another day when many tears were shed, the sooner January is over the better. I would like to start the year over on February 1 st. Yesterday was a beautiful day, I am sure everyone on the mountain had some great turns. If you knew Dave I hope you made a few for him!!

At 2280 meters it was -11, winds 55-75 from the south at 05:45. At 1550 meters it was -8, 86 % humidity, and the barometer is steady. 1 cm was recorded at pig alley. In the valley it is -5. Mostly dry today, a few flurries for the next 2 days with more precipitation on the way. Avalanche control produced minimum results yesterday, Husume however went size 3 in some deep storm snow, 1.5-2.5 meter fracture line.  On Wednesday Whistler Mountain produced some isolated size 2-2.5 avalanches that also went in the storm snow.

For the updated Avalanche Advisory click here: Avalanche Advisory

There has been 4 avalanche fatalities in the United States from January 18-22. One in Winter Park, 1 in Vail, 1 in Snowmass, and one in the Park Range. More details to follow once there are official reports.

Today we will be honouring an old friend whom I have had the fortune of flying with during his career as a helicopter pilot in Whistler. From rescues, medievacs, and lots of film work Dave Brolin was always there to help out. He was also a very fast skier!!  You are very missed!!

High winds with gusts of 120 KPH  and 30 cm of snow in the past 2 days equals a very big snowdrift!!!

Yesterday was the day if you like skiing steep smooth slopes with little to no ski penetration it was perfect. Mother natures form of grooming. It was an exceptionally good day. Wind pressed snow!!!

At 2280 meters the temperature was -10 at 05:45, winds were 30-55 KPH SSW. At 1550 meters the temperature was -6, 96 % humidity, and the barometer is rising. At 1650, pig alley the snow measurement was 14 cm at 1550 catskiner there was 13 cm recorded.  It was -2 in the valley.

Should be some awesome turns to be had today, especially in the trees.

For the latest Avalanche Advisory click here: Avalanche Advisory

A bit more info from the Duffy Area:

Yeah I know, same old spot. But it was storming hard, and 2 thunderous naturals/2 trees fallen on cerise trail scared us off from heading up vantage ridge in the am. So we headed to pascall instead for a safer route up. Turns out the storm snow is pretty bomber and bonding well with no real layers of concern. We observed 1 natural in the W bowl off pascall that was clearly due to windloading under a fresh cornice. I suspect the others that we heard were wind loading as well. The snow is stupid deep and insanely dry for the duffey. I feel like I have said this every day for the last while, but today was some of the best duffey snow I've ridden

• saw 1 and heard 2 naturals today on windloaded slopes - cornices grew a lot
• we dug some pits around pascall - storm snow is bonding well and no layers of concern. over a meter now in the storm cycle
  
  

These rocks are usually a good indicator of how much snow we have, you can see some of the most recent layers. Still far from where we were last year!!

At 2280 meters the temperature was -11 at 05:30, winds were 75-110 KPH from the south. At 1550 meters the temperature was -6, 96 % humidity, and the barometer is rising. At pig alley 5 cm of new snow was recorded at 05:30. At catskinner 1550 14 cm was recorded at 06:15  In the valley it is +1.

For the revised Avalanche Advisory click here: Avalanche Advisory

Avalanche control yesterday produced size 1 soft slabs, the skiing was very good but the persistent strong winds kept the alpine closed.



Thanks to Lee Lau for this submission from the Duffy:

Last data set I have is from 120121 - rough notes I typed up just now.  It's not very current obviously

Vantage Ridge

Skied NW, W and N slopes

S1 to S2 all day except end of day when last hour was S4,  Winds SSE 30 - 50 with SSE 50+ eod

Ski pen 30cms, boot pen 50cms.   Upside down snow pack.   Storm snow 20cms with wl aspects 40+.    Didn't go alpine; just at treeline or below treeline.

Can't remember temps but inversion was breaking down.

Tree skiing is getting better, more people are going into the trees. Yesterday around noon an employee was skiing in the gladed runs and fell into a tree hole upper skiers right of the middle pitch of sling shot. Luckily he managed to get his phone out of his pocket and was able to call dispatch about his predicament. Being upside down panicking in a tree hole unable to move he had a difficult time explaining exactly where he was. It took 3 patrollers to find him ( 0ne getting too low in the trees) and once found 2 patrollers to dig him out. He was unable to get out by himself.  If he had not had an accessible cell phone he may have died, as many have before in this situation.  If you are going to ski the trees have a partner who understands the consequences of falling into a tree hole. Stay within visual contact, have a whistle close to your mouth, have your cell phone in an accessible pocket and be aware of the tree holes. 

Yesterday, avalanche control produced mostly size1 10-20 cm soft slabs with a couple of isolated size 2's.

Click here for the latest Avalanche Advisory: Avalanche Advisory

At 2280 meters the temperature -10, winds 50-70 KPH from the SSE at 06:00. At 1550 it was -6, 97 % humidity, and the barometer is dropping slightly. At 1650 meters the snow measurement was 5 cm at 05:30. In the valley it is 0 and snowing 1 cm per hour. The models are indicating 20 -30 cm by tomorrow morning.


Have not received any data from ski tourers in the Duffy lately, does anyone have any intel??

Often I refer to the Catskinner weather Plot at 1550 meters. This is where the snow data is recorded on Blackcomb. Its been the weather plot since 1980. Unfortunately some of the trees that used to protect it were cut down. The amount of snow recorded here is usually a couple of centimetres less than the Pig Alley weather plot. Not the case in the past 2 days though as this plot had 2 centimetres more on the 12 hour readings.  There was a discrepancy in the amounts this morning , wind effect in both plots, but the consensus is 19 cm. Avalanche control is producing 20-40 cm soft slabs in certain wind effected terrain features.

Here is a close up shot of the automated weather equipment. There are sensors for barometric pressure, temperature, humidity, wind speed & direction, precipitation gauge, and snow depth sensors.

There is also a Stevenson screen (white slat box) that contains thermometers for manual readings, a snow stake for snow depth, and three boards were the Am, Pm, and storm snow are measured manually.

This is the weather plot at Pig Alley 1650 meters. As you can see its very similar to the Catskinner plot. There is also a Stevenson screen, 3 boards, and a pole for snow depth. The pig alley plot is in a much larger opening.

At 2280 meters the temperature was -11 at 06:00. The winds were 40-60 KPH from the south. At pig alley 19 centimetres of new snow was recorded overnight. At 1550 meters the temperature was -7, 93 % humidity, and the barometer is on a slight rise. In the valley it is 0. Expect heavy snow fall through out the day with the possibility of another 30 centimetres by tomorrow morning.


For the updated Avalanche Advisory click hereAvalanche Advisory

How low is low, I guess for the last storm this was the basement.

Yesterday I posted some observations , only 2 people (who commented) caught the flaw in the shovel shear test. In the observation guidelines and recording standards for the CAA (Canadian Avalanche Association), the back cut of the column should be no deeper than 70 cm. Here is the standard:

Shovel Shear Test

The shovel shear test provides information about the location where the snow could fail in shear. It is best applied for identification of buried weak layers and does not usually produce useful results in layers close to the snow surface. Soft snow near the surface is better tested with the tilt board and the shear frame or an improvised version of this tilt test.
A pit is dug in undisturbed snow to expose a smooth snow wall on a safe slope representative of the slopes of interest. The pit is dug to ground or until well below any possible significant weak layers (often as much as 2 metres deep). A column of snow 25cm wide (across the slope) and 35 to 40 cm up slope is created as in the diagram at left. The back of the column is not separated from the rest of the snow pack initially. A snow saw can assist in creating the column and making the subsequent back cut described below.
A cut in the back of the column is now made. This cut should be no more than 70 cm deep and should end in medium or hard snow. This is best done with a snow saw and the saw is left in place to identify the depth of the cut. A snow shovel is now inserted in this back cut as shown and force is slowly applied parallel to the top of the slope.
When the column fails in a smooth plane above the low end of the back cut, this level is marked and the depth of the shear failure and force required to cause failure are recorded. The size and type of crystals at the failure plane (often from the underside of the block) are also recorded. If the column does not shear cleanly, the block is then tilted and tapped with increasing force to see if other failures planes can be found.
Another back cut is now made an additional 70cm below the first and the process is repeated to the bottom of the pit. The test is often repeated to verify the results or a Compression Test may be done alongside the first test location.
The amount of effort required to cause the failure is recorded as follows:

• Very Easy (SV) - fails during cutting or insertion of shovel
• Easy (SE) - fails with minimum pressure
• Moderated (SM) - fails with moderate pressure
• Hard - (SH) - fails with firm sustained pressure
• Collapse (SC) - block settles when cut

NOTE: Observers are cautioned that identification of the weak layers is the primary objective of the shovel shear test. The shovel shear test is not a stability test. While the rating of effort needed to break the snow may assist with a decision concerning snow failure, it is an inaccurate measurement of snow strength. The ratings of effort are subjective and depend on the strength and stiffness of the slab, on the size, shape, length of the shovel and the length of the shovel handle.

A size 1 ski cut

 Yesterday avalanche control produced size1 to size 2 avalanches with ski cuts and explosives. The new snow was very reactive.

At 2280 meters the temperature was -12 at 06:00. the winds are 35-50 KPH from the SSE. At 1550 meters the temperature is -8 with 95 % humidity and the barometer is dropping. There is 1 cm of new snow. In the valley it is -2. Snow will ramp up during the day and by tomorrow morning we should see amounts near 30 centimetres. The skiing will be exceptional today.

For the up to date Avalanche Advisory click here: Avalanche Advisory

It will be a while before we get this view. Models indicate that there should be no real sunny breaks until Thursday.

Yesterday afternoon the barometer headed for the basement!!

It was snowing 3 cm an hour last night at times.

At 2280 meters it was -4.5 at 06:00, winds were SSE at 50-60 KPH. At 1550 meters it was -2, 99% humidity and the barometer was steady. We received 20 cm of new snow. Ski cutting produced a few size 1 soft slabs yesterday afternoon.

Below are some pictures and a profile submitted by Braden Douglas. They used the shovel shear test twice to produce a very easy shear on a very deep layer that is likely below the October 15 th crust.

Looks like it broke just above the saw.

Heavy column

Profile was recorded on Pit Pod

2012-01-19T11:40:32-08:00 Braden and Todd Moderate Good Good Quick Pit top down CDN Coast BC S mb Prev S 20 20 -13.5 1 m/s 2 2012-01-19T11:40:32-08:00 117 FEW Nil -8 1 S 195 0.0 1.0 SH 2.0 F D 1.0 20.0 PP 1.0 F 21.0 7.0 RGxf 1.0 4F D 28.0 1.0 IFrc 0.1 P 29.0 23.0 RGxf 1.0 4F 52.0 10.0 RG 0.5 F 62.030.0 RG 0.3 P 92.0 2.0 IFrc 0.1 1F M 94.0 8.0 RG 0.5 P Laminated rain crust and facets 102.0 5.0 IFrc K Failure layer 107.0 10.0 FC 0.5 4F D 0 -13.5 10 -12.520 -10.5 30 -7.5 40 -6.5 50 -5 60 -4.5 70 -3 80 -2.5 90 -2 100 -1.5 110 -1.5 Lesser flute Ski Area - Backcountry conditions 1620 337 12 50.0544 -122.917

Shovel shear x2 very easy with same result. Sudden planer. Column failed with shovel only partially inserted. No pressure.


  Click here to see an avalanche video from Utah: Avalanche Video

For the updated Avalanche Advisory click here: Avalanche Advisory


Avalanche awareness days are being held at the top of Solar Coaster, turn left and look for the sign. January 21 & 22, 2012

I am still intrigued by how much man made snow sublimates. But enough, could do a whole slide show presentation on the subject. Blew ski touring off today for the quest of hoar frost. Donned the snowshoes and with some encouragement from my partner  off we went. Found some amazing hoar frost in the cliffs above the trails in Alpine Meadows.

hoar·frost  (hôrfrôst, -frst, hr-) n. Frozen dew that forms a white coating on a surface. Also called white frost.

hoar·frost  (hôrfrôst, -frst, hr-)

n.

Frozen dew that forms a white coating on a surface. Also called white frost.

Hoarfrost A deposit of interlocking ice crystals (hoar crystals) formed by direct sublimation on objects, usually those of small diameter freely exposed to the air, such as tree branches, plant stems and leaf edges, wires, poles, etc., which surface is sufficiently cooled, mostly by nocturnal radiation, to cause the direct sublimation of the water vapor contained in the ambient air.

At 2280 meters the temperature is -7 with south winds at 35-45 KPH. At 11550 meters the temperature is -6 with 95 % humidity and the barometer is dropping. There was 2 cm of new snow last night. In the valley it is -14.

For the updated Avalanche Advisory click here: Avalanche Advisory


OVER THE WEEKEND WE COULD RECEIVE 40-60 CENTIMETRES OF NEW SNOW DEPENDING ON HOW THE NEXT SERIES OF LOWS LINE UP . THIS WILL CERTAINLY CHANGE THE PRESENT AVALANCHE CONDITIONS.

Sublimation of the snow at ridge tops is common as it moves up into the atmosphere driven by the wind.

Sublimation is the process of transition of a substance from the solid phase to the gas phase without passing through an intermediate liquid phase. Sublimation is an endothermic phase transition that occurs at temperatures and pressures below a substance's triple point in its phase diagram.

With the cold temperatures we have been having, snow making is pumping out the snow !! or is it? Yesterday morning many of the guns on Blackcomb were turned off because of sublimation. The very cold temperature's and humidity affected the snow production.  In the morning it appeared that 40 %-60% of the snow coming out of the guns was sublimating. There were great turns to be had on the man made snow yesterday!!!

Snow gun at full production on Cruiser run at the end of the day on Wednesday.

The snow is rising into the atmosphere and sublimating.

At 2280 meters the temperature at 06:00 was -14.5, winds were 25-35 KPH from the south. At 1550 there is a trace of new snow, the temperature was -18.5, relative humidity was 88% and the barometer is on a slight decline. In the valley it is -18.

For an up to date Avalanche Advisory click here: Avalanche Advisory


Check out this video of extended column test on Dec 12, 2011 surface hoar down 40 cm at Panorama Ski Resort.

For more information on how much snow is lost in sublimation click here: Sublimation in Snow

Yesterday was cold and windy, even with the little snow that fell there were a few size 1 30 cm soft slabs to be found on steep lee slopes. In this particular slab there were 3 distinct layers.

30 cm soft slab on False Face

Another small soft slab

The winds picked up to 60 KPH but if you were able to stay warm there were some good turns to be had.

At 06:00 the temperature at 2280 meters was -22. Winds were out of the north at 2-7 KPH. At 1550 it was -20, relative humidity at 86.9 % and the barometer is on a slight decline. In the valley it is -20.

For the updated Avalanche Advisory click here:Avalanche Advisory

Great footage of an avalanche near Stewart, B.C. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjAjWyLowXo

Yesterday was cold, it even looked cold!!

At 06:00 the temperature at 2280 meters was -17 with 40-50 KPH winds from the south. Wind chill brings that to -40. Bundle up. At Pig Alley there was 3 cm of new snow. At 1550 meters the temperature was -14 with 91 % humidity and the barometer was on a slight decline. In the valley it is -15 and snowing. There was 15 cm in upper Alpine Meadows.

For an updated Avalanche Advisory click here: Avalanche Advisory

The models and recreation forecast have been off on their numbers, it is snowing now but should ease off to flurries by this afternoon.

Cold temperatures and no wind will certainly help surface hoar to develop.

At 06:00 hrs it was -18 at 2280 meters with south winds 40-50 KPH. Wind chill puts the temperature at -40. At 1550 meters the temperature is -13, relative humidity at 90 %, and the barometer is on a very slight decline. In the valley it is -9. If you go into the alpine today be sure to dress extra warm and keep all exposed skin covered.

For the latest Avalanche Advisory click here: Avalanche Advisory

For a brief explanation of wind chill and a wind chill converter click here: Wind Chill

Another explanation is from Wikipedia:
The human body loses heat through convection, evaporation, conduction, and radiation.^[1] The rate of heat loss by a surface through convection depends on the wind speed above that surface: the faster the wind speed, the more readily the surface cools. For inanimate objects, the effect of wind chill is to reduce any warmer objects to the ambient temperature more quickly. It cannot, however, reduce the temperature of these objects below the ambient temperature, no matter how great the wind velocity. For most biological organisms, the physiological response is to maintain surface temperature in an acceptable range so as to avoid adverse effects. Thus, the attempt to maintain a given surface temperature in an environment of faster heat loss results in both the perception of lower temperatures and an actual greater heat loss increasing the risk of adverse effects such as frostbite and death.

No new snow but temperatures are good for making snow.

At 07:00 at 2280 meters the temperature was -18 with 8-10 KPH winds from the NE. At 1550 meters the temperature is
-14. Relative humidity there is 88% and the barometer is rising.  The temp in the valley is -7.

Here is an article submitted by Braden Douglas. 

The Human Factor

The Psychology of Backcountry Safety, by Mike Richardson
American Avalanche Association / Dec. 30, 2011

Backcountry Safety Systems

Originally, this was supposed to be an article about human factors and trip planning. Yet over the past few months, as I’ve had discussions with people in the industry and pored over materials on psychology and risk management, it’s become increasingly clear to me that there is no separation between psychology and any specific element of backcountry safety. In light of this basic fact, it seems entirely reasonable to conclude that backcountry safety systems must be centered around tools for managing the risks that arise from our psychology and its connection to our physiology.

The first thing I’m going to propose is a catchphrase to describes risk management concepts. In this article I’ll use the term “complete backcountry safety system” to foster an integrative view of the system composed of trip planning, travel techniques, and avalanche rescue. A complete backcountry safety system uses multiple overlapping elements in order to implement risk management in a variety of different places, which is the same concept as not putting all your eggs in one basket.

Second, on the advice of a clinical psychologist, I’m going to propose replacing the term “human factors” with “psychology.” Just as the high concepts of risk management are not easy for most people to learn and apply in the field, using jargon such as human factors only serves to increase the difficulty in accounting for how individual psychology flows into group psychology and influences decisions.

From the perspective of contemporary psychology, “bad decisions” can be described as negative outcomes associated with our reactions to stress. It’s tempting to say that our reactions to stress have very bad consequences in the backcountry, as if these reactions are benign everywhere else, but poor coping skills have bad consequences in the rest of our lives as well. How, then, can we teach recreational backcountry skiers to manage the psychological stress associated with backcountry outings? The answer, in large part, depends on what we believe is really at the center of backcountry safety.

Cognitive behavioral therapy is one approach to teaching us effective proactive and reactive techniques for managing our state of mind. Proactive techniques help us learn how to recognize certain psychological pitfalls in order to avoid them in the first place, and reactive techniques help us clean up afterwards if avoidance is impossible. Bruce Tremper makes the point quite succinctly when he writes, “See a therapist. Character flaws might provide your friends with good gossip, but in the mountains they will kill you.”

Ian McCammon has published some very interesting and oft-cited research. He was curious about why people with avalanche training were killed by avalanches when obvious signs of instability were present. This just begs the question: what was the state of mind of the individual for whom this sign of instability was allegedly obvious?

The deeper answer to McCammon’s original query is of course very clear: people ignored obvious signs of instability because their state of mind allowed them to do so. When it comes right down to it, psychology is critically important because it refers to our state of mind, and, naturally, our state of mind plays a central role in our choices. Including the choice to travel in avalanche terrain when the snow is unstable.

Why Does This Happen?

Psychological equilibrium is important to us, and it is perhaps related to the body’s drive to maintain biological homeostasis. Psychology is a very complex domain, so there isn’t enough room to discuss the subject in great detail here. However, despite the complexities, systems-thinking and the careful use of framing techniques allow us to produce powerful generalizations from which it is possible to construct simple, highly effective teaching materials.

In order to develop a systems-thinking approach to psychology as it relates to avalanches, we need to identify broader themes, and we can do this by searching the literature. To do this, I reviewed nonfiction works, avalanche research, and contemporary psychological research. In addition, there were several key conversations with clinical psychologists and the editor of this publication. The review process, and the associated synthesis, identified several very specific themes that comprehensively “frame” several major variables of the human element as it relates to avalanches: desire, uncertainty, stress, and trouble.

What do you think happens inside a mind beset with unmanaged desire? We rationalize in order to justify our desires. We think that the rules don’t apply today because the snow is mostly stable. What do you think happens inside a mind fraught with unmanaged uncertainty? We speculate and construct “facts” in order to fulfill our desire for clarity. We simply ignore our uncertainty or try to explain it away.

In short, desire and uncertainty – alone or in combination – create stress. In turn, we react, and it is the nature of this reaction in the context of the current situation that determines whether or not we get into trouble. The basic neurochemistry of this response is well understood. Chemicals such as norepinephrine and cortisol shortcut our decision-making and interfere with memory use. Sensory perception is routed directly from the thalamus to amygdala, bypassing the cortex altogether. Collectively, even the most basic facts suggest that it is very important to manage our psychological response to stress in order to prevent the psychological-physiological stress cascade from pulling the wool over our eyes.

Given the ever-present and dynamic nature of our psychology – including its basis in, and effects on, our biology – instead of presenting psychology as yet another element of a complete backcountry safety system, it might be very useful to acknowledge that a complete backcountry safety system revolves around managing our psychology. Managing implies actions, and we can sort these into proactions and reactions. Since managing our psychology is of central importance to safe backountry travel, then it certainly could be useful to think about how complete backcountry safety systems help us choose proactions and reactions appropriate for the current situation.

The Planning Cascade

In my experience, which may be relevant only to the Cascade Range in Washington state, many recreational backcountry skiers prefer to go light on the trip planning. In the hands of undisciplined skiers, poorly planned trips can easily become disorganized, stressful affairs. How does this stress arise? Well, it’s quite simple actually: if you don’t plan, you might not know something. Not knowing something creates uncertainty. It’s perfectly possible to desire something even if you’re uncertain, and this creates the psychological discomfort which can trigger a physical stress response. When this happens, the stress response may be significant enough to induce behavior that compromises the application of travel techniques.

As a result of compromised planning, including its effects on the application of travel techniques, additional pressure is put onto the avalanche rescue component of the dismantled backcountry safety system. Unfortunately, the avalanche rescue component of a complete backcountry safety system is designed only to give you a chance at live recovery in the event of a complete burial. At this point, in the event of an avalanche, successful avalanche rescue is the only thing that stands between the party and total disaster.

Trip planning plays a prominent role in managing our psychology. Planning allows us to condition our state of mind in a safe, low-stress situation. We can gather information by performing simulations of the trip, and even determine key decision points beforehand. In this sense, trip planning helps us establish a healthy state of mind that can serve as a highly effective replacement for our default psychological habits and responses, while also reducing stress and helping us manage expectations.

Good habits are essential to high performance in most areas of life, and backcountry skiing is certainly no exception. Mountain professionals, many of whom possess a high degree of experience and skill, already realize that safety and psychology are, in fact, inseparable. They also know that managing psychology requires proactive and reactive techniques, and they get into the habit of applying the right technique at the right time.

It’s really quite remarkable how the psychological-physiological stress cascade leads directly to a similar cascade of failures in a complete backcountry safety system. On the other hand, it is not remarkable at all when you consider that a complete backcountry safety system is composed of human beings.

Check your transceiver before you leave home. Check yourself as well.

Additional Food for Thought

•Accident formation is an appropriate technical term for the basic psychological and physiological processes that lead to avalanche involvement, and it may be useful to present trip planning, travel technique, and rescue skills as basic activities that are highly related to stress management and state of mind.
•McCammon and others, such as Albi Sole, have noted that many avalanche victims had some degree of formal avalanche training. It would be interesting to know whether or not any of the victims had psychological training, and if so, how much.
•Psychology is the ring that rules and binds all these concepts.
•Good individual decisions flow from healthy individual psychology.
•Good group decisions flow from balanced group psychology.
•Poor group decisions flow from individual imbalances that manifest as collective imbalances in group psychology as a whole.
•Dangerous psychological conditions occur when individual numbers for desire, uncertainty, and stress are uniformly high; or when there are large differences in these variables among group members. Uniformly high numbers or large variances are a sign to regroup and recenter. Accident formation is possible under these conditions; likelihood of accident formation is harder to discern and probably highly correlated to current instability. Stated simply, psychological conditions suitable for accident formation may develop on a regular basis, but the snowpack is usually stable…and you usually get away with it.
•Sloppy backcountry trips can quickly become highly stressful affairs during which we become susceptible to dangerous psychological conditions at level of individual and group.
•Uncertainty stimulates information-seeking behavior in most people. Data sampling has a strong influence on perception of instability, and we must manage our state of mind in order to minimize unwarranted influences on our beliefs about instability.
•Trip planning is a powerful, proactive method of managing desire and uncertainty.
•Differences in primary cognitive style can also serve as a source of instability during conflict resolution. People should strive to make decisions using a mix of cognitive styles, or a neutral style should be used.
•People who are “doers” may have more problems with desire.
•People who are “planners” may have more problems with uncertainty.
•People in the middle of the spectrum may have a mix of problems with desire and uncertainty.
•You can manage your state of mind quite effectively by evaluating desire, uncertainty, and keeping an eye out for stress, including stress that may arise in others.
•Educators should explicitly teach students that psychological stress, and our response to it, creates conditions suitable for accident formation.
•Don’t teach decision-making before you teach the basic psychology of desire, uncertainty, and stress. Students must proactively manage their state of mind before educators can expect their students to make good decisions. Otherwise, our mind will unconsciously selfmanage and create conditions suitable for accident formation.
•Cognitive behavioral model = Desire, Uncertainty, Stress, Trouble (DUST). This field doesn’t need “yet another acronym,” but I think this is a good tactic for memorization.
•Recreational backcountry enthusiasts must be taught how to negotiate with each other in order to sharpen their conflict resolution skills. This is an important area for future work.
•There are outliers for whom these techniques will not be effective.
•Finally, any techniques used must be compatible with realistic human behavior.
-------------------

References

Lynne Wolfe. Personal Communication.

Dan Otter. Personal Communication.

Uncertainty: The lack of certainty, A state of having limited knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe existing state or future outcome, more than one possible outcome. Definition from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty. Retrieved February 16, 2011, 12:11 am.

Desire. Desire is a sense of longing for a person or object or hoping for an outcome. Desire is the fire that sets action aflame. The same sense is expressed by emotions such as “craving” or “hankering”. When a person desires something or someone, their sense of longing is excited by the enjoyment or the thought of the item or person, and they want to take actions to obtain their goal. The motivational aspect of desire has long been noted by philosophers; Hobbes (1588–1679) asserted that human desire is the fundamental motivation of all human action. Definition from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desire_(emotion). Retrieved February 16, 2011, 12:19 am.

Desire is not an emotion. Desire is a feeling. Emotions originate from the limbic system in the brain; whereas, feelings originate from the cerebral cortex.

Cognitive Dissonance. Cognitive dissonance is an uncomfortable feeling caused by holding conflicting ideas simultaneously. The theory of cognitive dissonance proposes that people have a motivational drive to reduce dissonance. They do this by changing their attitudes, beliefs, and actions.[2] Dissonance is also reduced by justifying, blaming, and denying. It is one of the most influential and extensively studied theories in social psychology. Definition from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance. Retrieved November 16, 2010, 1:16 pm.

Cognitive behavioral therapy (or cognitive behavioral therapies or CBT) is a psychotherapeutic approach, a talking therapy, that aims to solve problems concerning dysfunctional emotions, behaviors and cognitions through a goal-oriented, systematic procedure. The title is used in diverse ways to designate behavior therapy, cognitive therapy, and to refer to therapy based upon a combination of basic behavioral and cognitive research. [1] en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_behavioral_therapy. Retrieved January 4, 2011 2:23 pm.

Cognitive Styles of Forest Service Scientists and Managers in the Pacific Northwest. Andrew B. Carey. United States Forest Service. 1997

Biological Homeostasis. The tendency of an organism or a cell to regulate its internal conditions, usually by a system of feedback controls, so as to stabilize health and functioning, regardless of the outside changing conditions (2) The ability of the body or a cell to seek and maintain a condition of equilibrium or stability within its internal environment when dealing with external changes. Definition from www.biologyonline. org/dictionary/Homeostasis. Retrieved December 9, 2010, 4:24 pm.

A Systems Approach To Human Factors And Expert Decision-Making Within Canadian Avalanche Phenomena. Laura Adams. MSc Thesis. 2005

The emotional/analytical conflict. Deep Survival. Laurance Gonzales. Norton, W. W.& Company, Inc. October 2004.

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AUTHOR’S NOTE: This article arises from some discussions I’ve had over the last few months with Lynne Wolfe and Dan Otter. They deserve an equal share of credit for many of the ideas contained herein. Mike Richardson is a software developer based in Seattle. He likes cookies and real life happy dogs. You can contact him at mike@scenomics.com.