April 16, 2017

    AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

    Locally, cornice control on the Horseshoes--1 Sz 2, 1 Sz 3. A few Sz1 ssl Na, Sc, Sa. Horstman Pic



    YESTERDAY:

    Early Saturday morning April 15, 2017. This image from same time line as Satellite picture below.

    Saturday morning, 07:30 Hrs.

    Much nicer weather Saturday afternoon to the South in Howe Sound.

    Looking to the North, Howe Sound Saturday at 13:00 Hrs.

    15:30 Hrs, this image was taken near the same time frame as the one below.

    Saturday afternoon.

    Periods of rain at the concert series on Saturday.

    Big picture on Saturday afternoon.

    Some blue by 17:15 Hours.

    Most of the cloud dissipated by 19:00 Hrs.


Weather Observations for April 16, 2017 taken at 06:00 Hours.

2240 meters      -8, Winds were 25-50 KPH ESE--Horstman Hut 
2180 meters      -8, Winds were 15-40 KPH SE  --Whistler Peak
1860 meters      -4, Winds were 20-25 KPH E    --Rendevous
1835 meters      -6, Winds were 10-20 KPH NE --Roundhouse
1650 meters      -6, 2 cm of new snow, 4 cm in 24 hrs, 360 cm Base, RH 95%  --Pig Alley
1550 meters      -4, 2 cm of new snow, 3 cm in 24 hrs, 267 cm Base, RH 88%  --Catskinner 

  660 meters      -2, Valley Temp, Max Temp Yesterday was +8.6, 0.3 mm of Precip recorded yest

   As of 07:00 hrs this am we have high overcast and unlimited visibility.


FORECAST:

An upper ridge will bring warm and mostly sunny weather to the area today in a Southerly flow aloft. We can expect high level cloud this morning, with mid level cloud moving into the area this afternoon, with the FL going as high as 1800+ meters. Monday will see a warm front push through our zone with light precipitation and the Fl hovering in the 1700 meter range. Tuesday we can anticipate a cold front with light precipitation and the FL starting at 1600 meters dropping to 1200 meters by Tuesday night. We may see a break in the series of systems Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning before the next frontal wave, which may bring light/moderate precipitation amounts with the FL hovering in the 1500 meter range.  Thursday at this time is looking overcast and warm with a high pressure possibly developing for Friday with the FL spiking to 2400 meters. More on that as we get closer.
Guesstimates: 0 cm by Monday morning, 8-12 cm by Tuesday morning, 5-10 cm by Wednesday morning, 10-15 cm by Thursday morning.

    GOES IR image from this am.

    High pressure for today, with a low moving in from the South. Mid to high cloud development in the pm.

    The low will move up the coast by Sunday night.

   Overcast skies and light precipitation for Monday into Tuesday.

    Cold front moves through on Tuesday.

   More precipitation on Wednesday.

OBSERVATIONS & INFORMATION:

Nick Chomey April 16 at 12:15am

We were up in the trees below sky pilot at the sea to sky gondola today. There were small, fresh slides everywhere and heard them going off frequently, often started by snow falling from cliffs, especially whenever the sun came out for a peek. There was also a substantial slide from probably a couple days ago that went all the way down the lower glacier area, down the chute and into the valley.  We decided to just do one run back down through the trees over the skin track and head out - snow was soft and fun, but I set off a small slab even in the trees. We dug a pit at the bottom which confirmed the same results - I don't know the proper terminology, but it failed a our 20cm down after 9 taps, but failed to propagate across the 90cm ECT. No more failures were made with taps, but when I pulled the column from the back with my shovel, it slid off fairly cleanly at about 1m deep, where the snow was heavily faceted and slushy/icy. I'm no expert, but it wouldn't surprise me if something big fails at that layer with the heat and sun tomorrow.  A group who started earlier successfully got the near the summit of sky pilot, but said the set off somewhat of a slide on their way down.  If anyone is planning to go out tomorrow in the area, I'd strongly recommend you reconsider, or at least be firmly committed to staying in the trees - even then it doesn't seem worthwhile as tree bombs are likely to be frequent.  I'm might be content to just hang out the gondola lodge with binoculars and wait to watch something big happen up there.

    Was looking promising in the morning!!!

    Snowing at 15:30 Hrs on Saturday.

    Clouds were clinging to the mountains even at 17:30 Hours.

    The local bear population are out and about.


    Convective cloud at days end.

ARTICLES:

Avalanche Forecast Center has made our mountains safer: Utah

Crew of specialists clears snow in Mountainous Glacier Park: Going to the Sun Road

The current Western Us snow pack: April 15, 2017

Spring Avalanche Statement: Flathead Avalanche Center