May 16, 2023

       AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

    Wet loose with a ski cut just before noon on steep East facing slopes. Otherwise no new avalanches.

      Entraining over the lower traverse on High Test.

      Overlord Ridge. May be a bit of new wet loose activity in the past 48 Hrs.

      Upper Disease Ridge.

    WEATHER YESTERDAY:

       Sunrise Monday was at 05:27 Hrs. +11 Deg C with a 5-10 KPH ESE wind at 1860 m.

     08:00 Hrs. +13 Deg C with a 4-6 KPH SE wind at 1860 m.

     10:00 Hrs. +14 Deg C with a 6-8 KPH S-SE breeze at 1860 m.

     Monday May 15, 2023. 12:00 Hrs. +16 Deg C with a 2-6 KPH SE breeze at 1835 m.

      14:00 Hrs. +17 Deg C with a 10-15 KPH Se wind at 1860 m.

      16:00 Hrs. +14 Deg C with a 25-40 KPH South wind at 2280 m. Some cloud for about 2 hours.

       Image from 2023/05/15. Low in Washington State. High still in control over most of B.C.

Weather Observations for May 16, 2023 taken at 06:00 Hours.

2280 meters     +11, Winds were 5-15 KPH SE--Horstman Hut

1860 meters     +11, Winds were 5-10 KPH ESE--Rendezvous  

1650 meters       +8, 0 mm in 12 Hrs, 0 mm in 24 Hrs. Base 167 cm--Pig Alley

1570 meters     +11, 0 mm in 12 Hrs, 0 mm in 24 Hrs. Base   75 cm--Catskinner

  660 meters       +9, Valley Temp, Max temp Yesterday was +31.7, 0.0 mm of precip yesterday.

  Depending on how new the sensor is, the RH at 2280 m Monday was around 28-40 %.

  At 1860 m it was between 25-40% RH.  At 1570 m  25-50% RH. 25% is pretty low.

09:15 Hrs upload this am.

      0.0 mm recorded at 1650 m as of 06:00 Hrs. Base 167 cm.

       As of 07:00 Hrs we have broken cloud and unlimited visibility.

FORECAST:

Ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern in an Easterly flow aloft. Mix of sun and cloud with some cloud spilling in from the low to the South. Will see more cloud as the day progresses with convective activity..  The FL is hovering around 3800 m and could get up to 4500 m today. The low to our South is slowly moving North but may not feel the real impact until Thursday. Looking like a mix of sun and cloud for Wednesday. Mix of sun and cloud for Thursday with afternoon showers and overcast skies as the low pushes in. Unsettled Friday with the chance of an isolated shower. Short lived with dirty ridging for Saturday and Sunday with the chance of some isolated showers.. May have a wet day for Gaper Day on Monday as a frontal band arrives. More on that as we get closer. Guesstimates: 0-trace mm by Wednesday am, 0 mm by Thursday am, trace-1 mm by Friday am, 0-trace mm by Saturday am, 0-1 mm by Sunday am, 1-4 mm by Monday am, 10-20 mm by Tuesday am.

      GOES IR IMAGE from this am.

      WINDY IMAGE 2023/05/16. 05:00 Hrs.

          High pressure will bring dirty ridging for today with a mix of sun and cloud. Warm.

      Dry day today, low just to the South. 

      Easterly flow aloft.

       500 mb image for Tuesday. Easterly flow.

       High and low boundary, high still winning. Warm.

      Ridge strengthens. Some cloud but mostly sunny on Wednesday.

               Low and high boundary, cloud moves in later in the pm with some showers Thursday. 

      Nice in the am on Thursday, clouds move in with pm showers. 

        Unsettled agin on Friday, dirty ridging with mix of sun and cloud. Above average temps.

      Dry Friday with a mix of sun and cloud.

       Another unsettled day Saturday with chance of some convective showers.

      Unsettled Sunday with a mix of sun and cloud with periods of light precipitation.

     Trough will bring overcast skies for Gaper day with light /moderate precipitation. May change?

      INFORMATION AND OBSERVATIONS: 

      05:30 Hrs at 2280 m, +11 Deg C with a 5-15 KPH NE wind. Some smoke down that way!

      Blue Bird Morning.

      Water, water everywhere.

      Horstman Creek was pumping!

      Looked firm but was soft.

      Ascent trail hiker made it to above the Castle. Wonder if it says closed?

      He eventually walked into the patrol, not sure of the outcome! Wanted to go to Rendezvous!

      Nice early morning slush skiing on Springboard, slip slopping away.

      Very moist snow.

      More melt since yesterday.

      Standing water around the periphery of Blackcomb Lake.

      Clouds would appear, grow then evaporate in 3 minutes. All the same cloud in these three shots.

      They would grow for a couple of minutes. How do clouds dissipate! <Click for explanation.

      And then it was gone. The humidity is so low. 25-30 % in the heat of the day.

      As of 14:30m Hrs. at the Catskinner weather plot there was a Base of 80 cm. +17.5 Deg C.

      Cooling off the metal parts?

      A few clouds around in the pm in Pemberton. High there on Monday was +35.9 Deg C.

      Sharing the sky with Mount Currie as the back drop. Look close for the helicopter!

FROM AVALANCHE CANADA:

Backcountry Avalanche Advisory – Sea to Sky

Avalanche Canada advisories are done for the season. Advisories are typically available in fall, winter and spring (October – April). Please check back in Fall 2023 for Whistler and the Sea to Sky region advisories. If you're heading into the mountains this spring, learn more about assessing spring conditions.

LOCAL MIN REPORTS:

Lillooet Icefield Conditions May 6-13, 2023: May 13, 2023

SHORT CLIPS:

Alberta Fires: Fox Creek

Satellite Images: Alberta Fires

Having a bad day: CDFL would be handy

Red Bull Airforce: Cool Flyby

ARTICLES:

Investigation into percolation and liquid water content in a multi-layered snow model for wet snow instabilities: Glacier National Park, Canada

A theory of water percolation in snow: Journal of Glaciology

Dangerous Compensation: Article on Airbags

Fires, Avalanches, and Floods: Colorado

Scientists take flight to measure vast California Snowpack: Measure Flooding Threats

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