May 16, 2018

    AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

    Recent Glide Avalanche that pulled out a slab.

    Very smooth rock as the sliding surface.

    Good size debris.

    YESTERDAY:

    Early Tuesday morning.

    A bit of a haze in the distance.

    Bluebird in the morning.

    Some cloud did appear later in the am.

    Some cloud dissipated later in the afternoon.

    Tantalus

    Tuesday afternoon.

    Big picture Tuesday afternoon.


Weather Observations for May 16, 2018  taken at 06:00 Hours.

2240 meters    +6, Winds were 15-20 KPH SW--Horstman Hut
1860 meters    +7, Winds were   5-10 KPH SE--Rendevous
1550 meters    +7, 0 cm of new snow, 0 cm in 24 hrs  Base 150 cm --Catskinner

  660 meters    +5, Valley Temp, Max Temp Yesterday was +27.4, 0.0 mm of precip recorded yest

    As of 07:00 hrs this am we have clear skies and unlimited visibility. +9 Deg C.

FORECAST:

The ridge is forecasted to shift Eastward today with a cooler marine push in a light Southerly flow aloft switching to Southwesterly later today. We may see some cloud development later in the day but there is a chance it may stay South of our zone. The FL is supposed to drop to around 3000 meters later today. There are some discrepancies in the various models, but it looks like we may see some unsettled weather Thursday through Sunday. Good chance the ridge will rebuild for Monday. Weak weather disturbances may bring the occasional shower but it will all depend on what the trough coming from the South does, possibility it may stay Southeast of this area. Slight chance of some lightning & thunder, likely will stay to our South.
Guesstimates: trace-3 mm by Thursday morning, trace-6 mm by Friday morning, trace-5 mm by Saturday morning, trace-8 mm by Sunday morning, trace-1mm by Monday morning.

    GOES IR image from this am.

    Still fairly warm at 1550 meters, low to the South is supposed to head North.

    Some cloud may work its way up here.

   Still looking like a nice day.

   Fronts on the coast.

   Cloud moving in for Thursday.

   Looks like it dissipates, but we may see more cloud  with the chance of some showers.

    INFORMATION & OBSERVATIONS:

    Pooling melt in Alpine depressions.

   New debris from a cornice drop yesterday morning, continued cornice trimming in the ski area.

    Evidence of a very active cycle, likely last week.

    Old cornice drop releasing a wet slab.

    After a few truck loads the Wizard is gone.

    The Beast!

    High in the valley yesterday was 27.4 according to the Nester's weather Station. Felt like 33.

   07:45 Hrs Wednesday morning. Stratus layer creeping inland.


From South Coast Touring:

Eeza Bella May 15 at 9:43pm

Please note there will be a VERY LARGE group heading up to the Wendy Thompson Hut this coming long weekend and we have rented the entire hut and will have folks tenting outside as well. Just want to give you all a heads up so that you don't expect peace and quiet if you're headed that way. Happy May long!

ARTICLES:

Avalanche survivor Brock Crouch's final thoughts while trying to stay alive; Luckily--I'm Alive

Ortrovox announces recall on 3+ Model Avalanche Beacons: Teton Gear & Tech

695,000 winter sports jobs at risk due to climate change: Powder

Recovery of missing Doctor brings closure to Community: Montana

Plowing has begun on the Hurley: I Survived the Hurley

How a new Backcoutry citizen science effort is growing the snow-depth database: Backcoutry Magazine

After an avalanche that nearly killed him, he found a much scarier challenge: Uplift

May 15, 2018

    AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

    Cornice control produced this wet avalanche Monday morning.

    Monday morning.

    Point release from Sunday night.

    New wet slab, natural cornice induced on Lesser Flute, likely dropped on Sunday evening.


    YESTERDAY:

    Early Monday morning.

    A few cirrus clouds around in the morning!

    Bluebird by the afternoon.

    A busy Green Lake Monday afternoon.

    20:15 Hrs, temperature at 2180 meters was +13 Deg C. High at that elevation yesterday was +16.

    Just after sunset Monday evening.

    Monday afternoon, massive stratus layer on the coast.

    Big picture Monday afternoon.



Weather Observations for May 15, 2018  taken at 06:00 Hours.

2240 meters    +7, Winds were 25-35 KPH S  --Horstman Hut
1860 meters    +9, Winds were 15-25 KPH SE--Rendevous
1550 meters    +9, 0 cm of new snow, 0 cm in 24 hrs  Base 157 cm --Catskinner

  660 meters    +5, Valley Temp, Max Temp Yesterday was +28.7, 0.0 mm of precip recorded yest

    As of 07:00 Hrs this am we have clear skies and unlimited visibility.


FORECAST:

The upper level ridge will weaken somewhat today allowing for cooler marine air to be pushed into the area in a South-Southwest flow aloft. The FL will peak out today at around 3500 meters. The ridge will begin to migrate eastward Wednesday and flatten, with clouds moving in by the afternoon. Depending on what the trough does moving in from the Southeast we could see some precipitation develop Wednesday night. Thursday is looking unsettled with the potential for some isolated showers. Friday is looking like a nice day with the chance of some showers in the evening. This pattern continues into the weekend but there are some differences in the models so more on that as we get closer.
Guesstimates: 0 mm by Wednesday morning, 3-6 mm by Thursday morning, 3-6 mm by Friday morning, trace-2 mm by Saturday morning.

    GOES IR image from this am.

    Slightly cooler today. Low moving up the coast.

    Another sunny morning.

    Cooler in the afternoon.

   Fronts along the coast.

   Should see some cloud development in the am.

    May see some precipitation near the end of the day.

    INFORMATION & OBSERVATIONS:

    No crust recovery Sunday night.

   High of +13 deg C at 2240 meters on Monday.

   The Wizard Bottom Terminal is demolished by an I Beam eating machine.

   Very skilled operator, not his first rodeo!

    Torn apart in around 5 hours.

   Still keener's, downloading not in the cards. High in the valley was +28.7 Deg C yesterday.

From South Coast Touring:

Matt Gunn May 14 at 11:39pm

Ascended Sigurd Creek and Pelion's northwest glacier Saturday May 12. Skins on at 940 m. Crossed Sigurd creek at 1060 m on a small lake covered in a melting snowpack, not sure how long that crossing will be possible. Stopped 40 m shy of the summit due to a large cornice overhanging the east side of the ridge and steep sun affected slopes on the west side. Great corn skiing on the glacier.

ARTICLES:

Missing skier recovered, not sure if its avalanche related: California

This hotel brings a whole new meaning to Ski In Ski Out: Switzerland

Factors influencing spring & summer snow ablation: Canadian Rockies

Northwest sudden Drying: Cliff Mass Weather Blog