October 24, 2022

      AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

      No injuries after avalanche up Little Cottonwood Canyon. 2022\10\23.           UAC Pic

      Climbers who died in an avalanche, 27 recovered, 2 still trapped in an icy grave. Article below.

     WEATHER IN THE PAST WEEK:

      Monday October 17, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. +13 Deg C with a 10-20 KPH SE wind.

      Tuesday October 18, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. +12 Deg C with a 5-15 KPH SE wind.

      Wednesday October 19, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. +12 Deg C with a 5-10 KPH ESE breeze.

      Thursday October 20, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. +7 Deg C with a 20-30 KPH SW wind.

      Friday October 21, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. -2 Deg C with a 5-10 KPH WNW breeze.

      Saturday October 22, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. -2 Deg C with a 5-10 KPH West breeze.

      Sunday October 23, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. -2 Deg C with a 5-15 KPH SSE Wind.

Weather Observations for October 24, 2022 taken at 06:00 Hours.

2180 meters     -5, Winds were 25-35 KPH SW--Whistler Peak 

1835 meters     -3, Winds were 10-25 KPH ESE--Round House

1650 meters     -2, 16 cm in 12 Hrs, 16 cm in 24 Hrs Base 16 cm--Pig Alley

  660 meters      0, Valley Temp, Max temp Yesterday was +6.7, 0.0 mm of precip yesterday. 

      As of 07:30 Hrs Monday, we have broken cloud and unlimited visibility.

       Looks like 15-18 cm of snow at 1650 m. Precipitation gauge was reading 15.2 mm at 06:00 Hrs. 

FORECAST:

A weakening broad cool upper trough will bring showers this morning in a Northerly flow aloft. By tonight we will have cloudy skies and dry cool weather, in a Westerly flow aloft. Another front arrives Tuesday with periods of light precipitation, moderate winds and seasonable temperatures. Dries out again Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening  A much more vigorous front arrives Thursday with moderate to heavy precipitation and strong winds. These active frontal bands will last into Saturday evening when it eases off. Unsettled Sunday am with a weak front pushing in for the pm.  Potential for 100- 150 mm of precipitation by next Monday, with snow falling in the alpine into tree line. Models are in disagreement on some of these amounts, the pattern is certainly looking like a wet one with at least one atmospheric river event possible. Long range models are calling for cooler temperatures and above average precipitation for November into December. Guesstimates: 0-2 mm by Tuesday am, 10-15 mm by Wednesday am, 5-10 mm by Thursday am, 40-60 mm by Friday am, 30-50 mm by Saturday am, 5-10 mm by Sunday am, 0-1 mm by Monday am. Will update amounts on Thursday am. 

Thursday Oct 27, 2022 Precipitation amount update: Guesstimates: 30-45 mm by Friday am, trace-2 mm by Saturday morning, 40-60 mm by Sunday am, 10-30 mm by Monday am.

      Thursday afternoon. Break Friday with more weather Saturday-Monday.

    1835 m Thursday Oct 27, 2022. 15:00 Hrs.  0 Deg C with a 20-55 KPH ESE wind. 26 mm at 1650

      GOES IR image from this am, looks to dry out later this am.

      GOES 17 ABI image 2022/10/24. 05:00 Hrs.

      Cool upper trough pushed through early Monday am, drying out in the pm.

      Weakening trough for Monday with some showers this am.

       Northerly flow aloft this am, likely switching to Westerly later today.

         Similar trough for Tuesday that pushed through early Monday am. Most of the precip in the pm.

      Another trough arrives Tuesday am.

       Significant low in the Aleutians will send the first big storm Thursday. Some precip Wednesday. 

      Break Wednesday morning into the early pm, another trough arrives later Wednesday pm.

       First significant storm of the year Thursday. Cool enough for snow in the upper elevations.

      Strong front on Thursday with the first AR event of the season.

        More weather on Friday.

      More precipitation for Friday.

      Looking like more precipitation on Saturday.

       May see drier weather by Sunday, there are model run inconsistencies so time will tell!!

      Jet stream will be sending multiple fronts our way this week.

      Beginning of the storm season.

           This is the forecasted perception amounts for next weekend.

        Cool atmospheric river possible for next weekend. Will update on Thursday.

      INFORMATION & OBSERVATIONS:

      Sunrise Monday, 07:37 Hrs. Smoke on the Mountains. Air Quality in Whistler 3-4.

      Thick smoke in Squamish and further South. Monday. Air quality Squamish 5. Vancouver 5-6.

      Tuesday Sunrise was at 07:39 Hrs. +7 Deg C at 2280 m.

      Not as smokey on Tuesday. Air quality at 4 but it seemed better than that. Vancouver was 9-10.

      Wednesday sunrise was at 07:40 Hrs. +6 Deg C at 2280 m. Air quality 2 at that time. 10+Van.

     Ridge holding, low moving down the coast but weakening.

      Smoke and fire in the Fraser Valley, AQI 10+. Wednesday.

       Mix of sun and cloud Thursday. High in the valley was +14.5 Deg C.

      Sunset Thursday was at 07:42 hrs. +1 Deg C at 2280 m. Freezing level dropping!

     08:00 Hrs Friday, dusting on Horstman Glacier. -5 Deg C at 2280 m. 0.1 mm recorded at 1650 m.

 

      08:00 Hrs Saturday. -6 Deg C at 2280 m. 1.7 mm recorded at 1570 m. FL around 1300 m.

      Sunrise 07:47 Hrs. Sunday. -7 Deg C at 2280 m. 1.0 mm recorded at 1650 m. -3 Deg C at 660 m.

VIDEOS:

Chorabari Glacier avalanche: Sept 22, 2022

Stopping in a good location to avoid the: Avalanche

Using a shovel to break a cornice initiating a large: Avalanche 

Avalanche on: Annapurna

Wind slab on lee slope: AvyBites

ARTICLES:

No injuries after avalanche up Little Cottonwood Canyon: Utah

Uttarkashi tragedy, trapped in an icy grave: India Today

Slab avalanches resemble strike-slip earthquakes: Physics World

Risk Tolerance and PTSD Talk, Squamish: October 29, 2022

How to prepare for your Level 1 Avalanche Course: BackCountry

ENSO Diagnostic Discussion-Oct 13, 2022: La Nina Advisory

Using intuition in the Backcountry--Moving from the Moneyball mindset: AvalancheGeeks

Experts ruled out any threat to Kedarnath township from avalanches: Northern India

Staying Balanced Under Pressure--Lessons from a pro skier: NZ Mountain Safety Council

Modeling weak snow layer in propagation saw test using an ice column model: DRDO

October 17, 2022

      AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

      9 guides, porters rescued after an avalanche at Base Camp, Mt Dhaulagiri. Article below. Net Pic

     Two mountaineers still buried, NIM accused of negligence. Weather hampers rescue.        Net Pic

      Crevasse where most of the avalanche victims ended up on Drupadi Ka Danka II Mountain.

      Wind slabs, Aoraki Mount Cook Region, NZ. October 14, 2022.                                   NZAA Pic

      WEATHER IN THE PAST WEEK:

      Monday October 10, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. +8 Deg C with a 25-50 KPH SW wind.

      Tuesday October 11, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. +11 Deg C with a 5-10 KPH West breeze.

     Wednesday October 12, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. +14 Deg C with a 0-5 NNE breeze.

      Thursday October 13, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. +16 Deg C with a 0-5 KPH SW breeze.

      Friday October 14, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. +13 Deg C with a 5-10 KPH NNE breeze.

      Saturday October 15, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. +13 Deg C with a 5-10 KPH North breeze.

      Sunday October 16, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. +16 Deg C with a 10-20 KPH ESE wind. >smoke

Weather Observations for October 17, 2022 taken at 06:00 Hours.

2180 meters      +9, Winds were 15-20 KPH SSW--Whistler Peak 

1835 meters    +12, Winds were   5-15 KPH SE--Round House

1650 meters    +10, 0.0 mm in 12 Hrs, 0.0 mm in 24 Hrs --Pig Alley

  660 meters      +2, Valley Temp, Max temp Yesterday was +19.3, 0.0 mm of precip yesterday.

As of today we have had 0.4 mm of rain in October, measured at 660 m.(Nesters Weather Station)

 

      As of 07:00 Hrs Monday we have clear skies above 2000 m with unlimited visibility. Smokey.

FORECAST:

Upper level ridge will shift East today ushering in some cloud in a Southerly flow aloft. Mix of sun and cloud with slightly cooler temps. Smoke is thicker this am, with air quality of 3.  Ridge strengthens again on Tuesday with sunny skies into Wednesday. Ridge begins to weaken Wednesday night with clouds moving in for Thursday. Friday will see an increase in cloud cover with the arrival of a front later in the pm. Rain Friday night will turn to snow as far down as the valley as a cold front in a North Westerly flow aloft brings a taste of winter. As of now looks like the cold front will be short lived as far as precipitation, but colder temperatures will likely stick around. Mostly cloudy with showers for Saturday. Sunday could see a significant amount of precipitation, some uncertainty in some of the models. Cool and moist for the beginning of next week. Back to a more seasonable weather pattern. Guesstimates: No precipitation until Friday, 5-15 mm by Saturday am, 1-3 mm by Sunday am, 5-30 mm by Monday am. Time will tell!!! The front moving down the coast has weakened and now we are expecting much less precipitation as forecasted earlier in the week. Still much variation in model runs but here are the new Guesstimates: 0 mm by Friday am, 1-4 mm by Saturday am, trace to 1 mm by Sunday am, 4-8mm by Monday am. Several cool fronts for next week will continue to bring precipitation to the area. 

      Most of the moisture on the weekend heads South.

      GOES IR image from this Monday am.

      GOES 17 ABI Image 2022/10/17. 05:00 Hrs.

      Upper level ridge with some cloud spilling in for Monday with onshore flow. 

     Ridge still dominant feature, some cloud from weak onshore flow.

      Southerly flow aloft.

      Ridge strengthens Tuesday with sunny skies, above seasonable temps.

      Upper level ridge for Tuesday.

      High still dominant feature, increasing cloud as the day progresses on Wednesday.

      Mix of sun and cloud for Wednesday, cloud moving in from off the coast.

      Ridge weakens on Thursday, still above average temps. cloud moves in from the North.

      Overcast but dry on Thursday.

     Cold front moves down the coast Friday with rain likely by the pm.

      Front pushes through early Saturday am, with some precip and overcast conditions on Saturday.

      Ridge has shifted West, front moves down the coast with cool temperatures on Sunday.

      INFORMATION & OBSERVATIONS: 

     Weak cold front with moderate winds pushed in early Monday am. 

      Monday morning, same time frame as above image.

     Sun showers around noon Monday, last day of summer operations. High in the valley was +19.

      Blackcomb Bowl Tuesday. Cooler temps but still time for more melt! High in the valley +17.

     Sunset Wednesday was at 18:28 Hrs. +12 Deg C at 2280 m.

     Wedge Mountain Thursday evening.  

     Friday morning sunrise. Inversion---+11 Deg C at 2280 m, +4 Deg C at 660 m. 

      Mount Currie on Saturday. High in the Pemberton valley was +24 Deg C. 29.1 Deg C in Squamish.

      Sunrise Sunday was at 07:35 Hrs. Warm temps and smoke in the air, especially South. +11 2280 m.

     Smoke drifting in from Washington State and S- SE BC. Air Quality 4 in Vancouver on Sunday.

      Jet Stream shifting by Friday Oct 21st. From summer to winter! Certainly an end to the drought.

      From the archives section on the side bar. October 18, 2021. 0 Deg C at 12:00 Hrs.

VIDEO CLIPS:

Moment of the avalanche on Manaslu: Oct 2, 2022

Avalanche Control: DaisyBell

Avalanche Control: Delirium?

Surrounded by avalanches: Safe spot?

Chilean Glacier Collapse: Sept 12, 2022

Not Alone: Dealing with PTSD

Avalanche trigger Points on a slope: Propagates from rock

Never easy rescuing people at: Altitude

ARTICLES:

Latest information on the Uttarkashi Avalanche: Northern India

Storms delay the recovery of two mountaineers: Uttarkashi

Two mountaineers still buried, NIM being accused of Negligence: Uttarakhan Avalanche

Nine guides, porters in Dhaulagiri avalanche rescued: Nepal

Recognizing avalanche terrain & trip preparedness-Oct 19, 2022 Webinar: Avalanche Canada

Wyoming Snow and Avalanche Workshop-Oct 21-21, 2022: Virtual Viewing

Survivor of deadly 1982 in-bounds avalanche critiques, praises documentary: Buried

Avalanche Canada Launching new forecasting system: Powder Canada

Wesler rescued Sherpas after avalanche: Manaslu

16 Things to Know, about ski touring: WildSnow