September 4, 2023

       AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

           Avalanche in Northern India. Article below.

      Na Sz 1 wind slab. 2023/08/30.                                                                           Tom Spencer Image

      Sz 3 Na Cinerama Col, NZ. 2023/08/24. Instagram report below.                              MSW Pic

      WEATHER PAST WEEK:

     Monday August 28, 2023. 12:00 Hrs. +22 Deg C with a 15-25 KPH ENE wind at 1835 m.

     12:00 Hrs Monday. +29 Deg C. AQHI at 4. 

      Tuesday August 29, 2023. 12:00 Hrs. +10 Deg C with a 5-10 KPH West wind at 1835 m.

      12:00 Hrs Tuesday. +15 Deg C. AQHI 2.

      Wednesday August 30, 2023. 14:00 Hrs. +9 Deg C with a 15-25 KPH West wind at 1835 m.

      14:00 Hrs Wednesday. +20 Deg C. AQHI at 1.

      Thursday August 31, 2023. 12:00 Hrs. +6 Deg C with a 5-15 KPH North wind at 1835 m.

      12:00 Hrs Thursday. +15 Deg C. 

      Friday September 1, 2023. 12:00 Hrs. +12 Deg C with a 10-20 KPH North wind at 1835 m.

     12:00 Hrs Friday. +22 Deg C. AQHI at 2!

      Saturday September 2, 2023. 12:00 Hrs. +17 Deg C with a 2-8 KPH West breeze at 1835 m.

     12:00 Hrs Saturday. +25 Deg C. AQHI was at 2!

      Sunday September 3, 2023. 15:00 Hrs.

     15:00 Hrs Sunday. +17 Deg C. AQHI was at 2!

 Weather Observations for September 4, 2023, taken at 06:00 Hrs.

2180 meters     +3, Winds were 5-10 KPH SE--Whistler Peak

1860 meters     +5, Winds were   4-8 KPH SW--Rendezvous  

1650 meters     +5, 0.2 mm in 12 Hrs, 2.6 mm in 24 Hrs.--Pig Alley

1570 meters     +7, 0.1 mm in 12 Hrs, 1.0 mm in 24 Hrs.-Catskinner

  660 meters   +12, Valley Temp, Max temp Yesterday was +17.9, 0.2 mm of precip yesterday.

      As of 07:00 this am we have upper broken cloud with thicker mid mountain cloud.

     

FORECAST:

Weak cool trough will bring mostly cloudy skies for today in a North Westerly flow aloft. Weak ridge exiting this am has some breaks in the upper level cloud. The FL is hovering around 2800 m. Mostly cloudy for today with the chance of some isolated showers. Some models are calling for some rain. Weak front may just keep clouds in the zone. Likely a mix of sun and cloud for Tuesday with the chance of some isolated showers. There are some model discrepancies so time will tell. Unsettled weather continues into Wednesday with a good chance of some periods of light rain. Drys out for Thursday as of now with dirty ridging.  Mix of sun and cloud into Friday with seasonable temperatures. As of now next weekend is looking sunny with a building ridge!! Drought like conditions are prevailing. Guesstimates: 0-trace by Tuesday am, 0-trace by Wednesday am, trace-1 mm by Thursday am, 0 mm by Friday am, 0 mm by Saturday am, 0 mm by Sunday am.

      GOES IMAGE from this am.

      WINDY IMAGE 2023/09/04. 05:00 Hrs.

       Weak trough Monday with mostly cloudy skies. Seasonable temps.

      Possibility of a few isolated showers Monday but mostly cloudy. 

      North Westerly flow aloft.

       Weak trough for Tuesday, mix of sun and cloud. Seasonable temps.

     Weak trough with some possible isolated showers Tuesday.

       Weak trough Wednesday with a mix of sun and cloud. Seasonable temps.

      Some showers possible on Wednesday.

       Dirty ridging on Thursday, still a trough in the area. Seasonable temps.

      Looking dry for Thursday. Seasonable temps.

      Looks dry as of now for Friday. Seasonable temps.

      Looks dry for Saturday. Seasonable temps.

      High may be present next Sunday, but there may be a change, especially by Monday.

 

      INFORMATION AND OBSERVATIONS:

     20:00 Hrs Monday. AQHI was 4 at 660 m.

      11:00 Hrs Tuesday. AQHI was 2 at 660 m.

      17:00 Hrs Wednesday. AQHI 2 at 660 m.!

      15:00 Hrs Thursday. AQHI at 660 m was 2!

      17:00 Hrs. Thursday. +9 Deg C with a 5-10 KPH NNE breeze at 1835 m.

      Windy image same time frame as above.

     Friday 12:00 Hrs. +7 Deg C with a 20-40 KPH North wind at 2180 m.

     Sunday 14:00 Hrs. Rain showers in Whistler. 0.2 mm recorded at 660 m.

Precipitation measured at 660 m (Nesters Weather Station) over the past 10 years for August.

2014-2.8 mm     2015-29.5 mm     2016-20.8 mm     2017-2.1 mm     2018-11.0 mm

2019-No Data   2020-71.1 mm.    2021-52.1 mm     2022-10.7 mm     2023-16.8 mm        

SHORT CLIPS:

Recent Pow Turns: New Zealand

Skiing: Peru

Only the wind: WakeBoarding

Head First: MTB

Instagram Reports from NZ:

Sz 3 Na Mt Cook Area: 2023/08/24

Deep Slab or persistent Slab: 2023/08/31

ARTICLES:

Avalanche hits Sumeru Mountain in Uttarakhand: Northern India

Backcountry Conditions Report, Sept 1, 2023: Australia

Himalayan avalanches are increasing risk to climbers in warming climate: Research Suggests

Winter 2023/24 Snowfall Predictions: Severe Weather Europe

Atmospheric River swamps Central Chile: Earth Observatory

August 28, 2023

     AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

      Sz 2 wet slab, 2023/08/26. Queenstown, NZ.                                                       Flo de Vries Pic

        In bounds Avalanche at Nevados de Chillan. Article below.                          Siamac Sadaat Pic

    Avalanche on Mt Sefton, Mt Cook Area. 2023/08/25. Article and video below. Bailey Nichlos Pic

      Na, (natural avalanche) East face Aoraki. 2023/08/24. NZAA Report below.       Tim Robertson Pic

      Large NA avalanche off Mt Phyllis onto Aida Glacier. PWL, Mt Cook NP. 2023/08/22 NZAA Pic

      WEATHER PAST WEEK:

      Monday August 21, 2023. 12:00 Hrs. +15 Deg C with a 15-30 KPH East wind at 1835 m.

    12:00 Hrs Monday. +22 Deg C! AQHI went from 4 early in the am to 8 at noon! High +25.5 Deg C.

      Tuesday August 22, 2023. 12:00 Hrs. +7 Deg C with a 10-20 KPH SW wind.

     12:00 Hrs Tuesday. +20 Deg C. AQHI at 3!

      Wednesday August 23, 2023. 12:00 Hrs. +4 Deg C with a 15-30 KPH SSW wind at 1835 m.

      12:00 Hrs Wednesday. +13 Deg C. AQHI at 2!

      Thursday August 24, 2023. 12:00 Hrs. +10 deg C with a 5-15 KPH North wind at 1835 m.

     12:00 Hrs Thursday. +20 Deg C. AQHI at 1!

      Friday August 25, 2023. 14:00 Hrs. +14 Deg  C with a 5-10 KPH NW at 1835 m.

      14:00 Hrs Friday. +23 Deg C. AQHI at 4!

     Saturday August 25, 2023. 12:00 Hrs. +14 Deg c with a 5-10 KPH West wind at 1835 m.

     Sunday August 27, 2023. 12:00 Hrs. +19 Deg C with a 5-10 KPH West wind at 1835 m.

      12:00 Hrs Sunday. +28 Deg C. AQHI 4!

Weather Observations for August 28, 2023 taken at 08:00 Hours.

2180 meters     +16, Winds were 20-30KPH ESE--Whistler Peak

1835 meters     +19, Winds were   5-15 KPH ESE--Roundhouse  

1650 meters     +15, 0 mm in 12 Hrs, 0 mm in 24 Hrs.--Pig Alley

1570 meters     +17, 0 mm in 12 Hrs, 0 mm in 24 Hrs. Base--Catskinner

  660 meters     +14, Valley Temp, Max temp Yesterday was +34, 0.0 mm of precip yesterday.

     

     08:00 Hrs, some high thin cloud, smokey skies.

FORECAST:

Sunny above the smoke layer this am, increase in clouds later in the pm. Series of short wave troughs in a mostly Southwesterly flow aloft, over the next few days. Wet Tuesday with periods of light precipitation. Drys out on Wednesday with the chance of some isolated showers later in the pm. Wet Thursday with light/moderate precipitation. Cloudy weather. Dirty ridging for Friday into Saturday. Same pattern for early next week, but that is certainly susceptible to change.. Guesstimates: trace-1 mm by Tuesday am, 5-10 mm by Wednesday am, 2-6 mm by Thursday am, 5-10 mm by Friday am, 0-trace by Saturday am, 0 mm by Sunday am.

     GOES IMAGE this am.

      WINDY IMAGE 2023/08/28. 07:00 HRS.

     Mix of sun and cloud today, above average temps. showers tonight.

      Mix of sun and cloud Monday. Showers expected tonight.

      Southerly flow aloft!

              Broad upper level low,  periods of light rain! Seasonable temps.

      Light precipitation Tuesday.

       Weak short wave trough for Wednesday, mix of sun and cloud. Seasonable temps.

      Dry for most of the day Wednesday. Showers possibly Wednesday night.

        Low bringing more precip for Thursday. Seasonable temps.

      Light rain for Thursday.

      Dirty ridging for Friday. Mix of sun and cloud.

      Dirty ridging Saturday.

      Weak short wave trough Sunday?? Cloudy with showers a possability.

      INFORMATION AND OBSERVATIONS:

      Monday morning. Smoke still thick in the Whistler area. Moisture going East.

      18:00 Hrs Monday. +22 Deg C at 660 m. AQHI went down to 6!

      Windy Image Tuesday 11:00 Hrs. Low entraining some of the moisture left over from Hillary.

      Increase in cloud cover Tuesday 18:00 Hrs.

      08:00 Hrs Wednesday, AQHI at 2. 

     Wednesday 11:00 Hrs. Brief sprinkle!

      Overcast with cloud layer at around 1900 m, 17:00 hrs Wednesday. 

      Some smoke Thursday am. High in Squamish was +28.7 deg C.

     Sunrise Friday 06:16 Hrs. Mix of sun and cloud with more smoke. AQHI 2 at 660 m.

      Windy image 2023/08/25. 06:00 Hrs. Low bringing cloud & smoke to the South Coast.

      08:00 Hrs Saturday. AQHI in the valley is 3.

      07:00 Hrs Sunday. AQHI 1 in the valley. +16 Deg C at 1860 m.

      Same time line Sunday am.

     15:00 Hrs Sunday. AQHI at 6! +18 Deg C at 2180 m.

SHORT CLIPS:

Fresh Tracks: Argentina

Pow Turns: Argentina

Fresh Tracks: New Zealand

Remote Avalanches--PWL: New Zealand

NEW ZEALAND Avalanche Information: 

Pubic Observation 2023/08/24: East face Aoraki

Large Natural Avalanche, Mount Cook NP: NZAA

ARTICLES:

Inbounds avalanche triggered at Chillaen Ski Resort next to chairlift: SnowBrains

Very active avalanche cycle in New Zealand, video from Mt Cook Village: Stuff.co.nz

Large Aoraki/Mt Cook avalanche a warning of backcountry danger: New Zealand

Chilean Ski Resort hit by the "storm of a decade": Santa Rosa Storm

Mountain Safety Collective Backcountry Conditions Report 2023/08/25: Australia

Are avalanches becoming more common in the Alps: Sean Newsom

Future of skiing on Mt Ruapehu remains climate dependant: NZ

In depth look at winter 2023/24, Strong El Nino Event: Severe Weather Europe

Climate records tumble as Switzerland swelters in heatwave: SwissInfo