Wayne Flann Avalanche Blog

17 Nov 2022

November 17, 2022

AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

Sz 1 Snowmobile remote 2022/11/15. Hatcher Pass AK. Click> CNFAIC Report

Mineral Fork Glide Crack, Utah. 2022/11/15. Changing conditions in article below. Steve Pic

Conditions can change quickly even in early winter. Utah. Article below. Antenucci Pic

Sc Sz 1 2022/11/15. Schofield Pass, CO. Click here> CAIC Report. CAIC Pic

WEATHER IN THE PAST THREE DAYS :

Monday November 14, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. +5 C with a 5-10 KPH SE breeze. +2 at 2180 m.

Tuesday November 15, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. +9 Deg C with a 5-10 KPH NE breeze. + 6 at 2180 m.

Wednesday November 16, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. +8 Deg C with a 0-5 KPH SE breeze. +1 at 660 m.

Weather Observations for November 17, 2022 taken at 06:00 Hours.

2180 meters -11, Winds were 30-50 KPH N--Whistler Peak

1835 meters -9, Winds were 10-30 KPH NNW--Round House

1650 meters -7, 0.0 mm in 12 Hrs, 0.0 mm in 24 Hrs. Base 54 cm --Pig Alley

660 meters +2, Valley Temp, Max temp Yesterday was +2.1, 0.0 mm of precip yesterday.

As of 07:00 Hrs this am we have clear skies and unlimited visibility.

FORECAST:

Strong upper level ridge continues to block any moisture from arriving on the South Coast in a Northerly flow aloft. Mostly sunny skies into Saturday am with cooler temperatures. Snow making will be able to go back into production! No more inversion for now. Precipitation will arrive by early next week with slightly warmer than desirable temperatures and will transition to above seasonable temperatures by opening day. Several weak storms will bring snow to the alpine and to mid station prior to Thursday. More storms with warmer temperatures will follow. Hopefully there will not be a pineapple express! Guesstimates: 0 mm into Sunday am., 0-2 mm by Monday am, 4-8 mm by Tuesday am. More on the amounts and freezing levels in Mondays post.

GOES IR Image from this am.

GOES 17 ABI Image 2022/11/17. 05:00 Hrs.

Upper level ridge will bring sunny skies for Thursday, cooler temps.

Upper ridge dominant feature, sunny skies for Thursday.

Northerly flow aloft. Outflows in the coastal sounds.

High dominating, cooler temperatures from arctic air spilling into our zone on Friday.

Upper level ridge for Friday, sunny skies.

Ridge holds, slightly warmer Saturday with some cloud pushing in by the pm.

Low begins to exert some pressure on high Saturday, clouds moving down the coast.

Dry but cloudy for Sunday.

Ridge shifts East, series of troughs starting Monday. Weak AR event Wednesday/Thursday?

Light precipitation on Monday, warmer.

More precipitation on Tuesday.

Active storm cycle forecasted for next week into the weekend. European Model.

INFORMATION & OBSERVATIONS:

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Looks like there was a rockslide on Upper Disease Ridge. Monday. WF Pic

Track on Lower Disease Ridge. WF Pic

Some cool Pacific troughs needed. Hopefully early next week with some punch!!

Lost Lake Crystals. WF Pic

Sunrise Tuesday 07:25 Hrs. + 4 Deg C at 2280 m with a 30-40 KPH NNE wind. -5 Deg C at 660 m

Sunset was at 16:28 Hrs Tuesday. +5 Deg C with a 20-25 KPH North wind. -2 Deg C at 660 m.

Frosty by Lost Lake Wednesday am. WF Pic

Some interesting crystals. WF Pic

Green on East side, white on West side.

Sunset Wednesday, 16:27 Hrs. Sunrise was at 07:27 Hrs. Exactly 9 hrs. -3 Minutes from Tuesday.

LOCAL MIN REPORTS:

Sproattalicious: Nov 13, 2022

Round Mountain Sunday: Nov 13, 2022

Panorama Ridge: Nov 13, 2022

VIDEOS:

Small slide in Quebec 2022/11/14: Avalanche Quebec

Avalanche above Camp 2: Annapurna

Big Air to: Rag Doll

Brutal Lineups on opening day: Solitude

Snowpack in Montana: MTavalanche

Mitigating Avalanche Risk in High Mountain Asia: Cryosphere

ARTICLES:

How to learn from avalanche accident reports: Powder Cloud

How quickly the avalanche conditions can change: Utah

Turbocharge your trailhead beacon check: WildSnow

Significant cooling event in the Southern Hemisphere, volcanic influence: Severe Weather Europe

Vail Resorts stamping out on those leaving their equipment to reserve place: SnowBrains

14 Nov 2022

November 14, 2022

AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

Skier Accidental Hard Slab. Wolf Creek Utah. 2022/11/12. UAC Report. Michael Janulaitis Pic

Skier Triggered Hard slab, Marmot-Hatcher Pass, AK. CNFIAC Report. Austin Hart Image?

Sz 2 Na Galena Peak, Idaho. 2022/11/10 Click for report> SAC Report SAC Pic

Skier accidental Flagstaff Ridge, Utah. 2022/11/10. UAC Report. Bellamy/Pearson Pic

Sa Sz 1Alpine Meadows area, Calif. 2022/11/09. SAC Report. SAC Pic

Skier remote on Mount Blackmore, Montana. 2022/11/09. GNFAC Report GNFAC pic

WEATHER IN THE PAST FEW DAYS:

Thursday November 10, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. -8 Deg C with a 0-5 KPH NNW Breeze.

Friday November 11, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. -2 Deg C with a 10-20 KPH ESE wind.

Saturday November 12, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. -1 Deg C with a 5-10 KPH WNW Breeze.

Sunday November 13, 2022. 12:45 Hrs. +1 Deg C with a 5-10 KPH NNE breeze.

Weather Observations for November 14, 2022 taken at 06:00 Hours.

2180 meters 0, Winds were 30-50 KPH N--Whistler Peak

1835 meters +1, Winds were 5-20 KPH N--Round House

1650 meters -1, 0.0 mm in 12 Hrs, 0.0 mm in 24 Hrs. Base 58 cm. --Pig Alley

660 meters -1, Valley Temp, Max temp Yesterday was +5.4, 0.0 mm of precip yesterday.

As of 07:00 Hrs we have some high broken thin cloud, unlimited visibility and a slight inversion.

FORECAST:

High amplitude ridge bringing an omega block, will dominate the weather pattern for the rest of the week. For today we can expect sunny skies, in a Northerly flow aloft with warm temperatures. Some thin high cloud this am should burn off quickly. Sunny conditions with some occasional cloud will be with us until at least Sunday, when we should see colder temperatures, increasing cloud cover and a flattening ridge. Hopefully the moisture train returns Monday with some much needed snow. Time will tell!! More on the forecast in Thursday's post (Nov 17). Guesstimates: no snow until at least Sunday/Monday.

GOES IR Image from this am.