November 3, 2022

     AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

      Na Sz 1.5 Cold Bank Pass, CO. 2022/11/2.  Click here-CAIC Report                  Travis Laverty Pic

      Sa Sz 0.5 in Utah. 2022/11/02  Click here-UAC Report.                                                     UAC Pic

      Na slab avalanche Schofield Pass, CO. End of October.                                     CAIC Pic

      Du Faur Peak, Mount Cook Area, NZ. 2022/10/31. Wet loose and wet slab avalanches. NZA Pic

      Report posted below from TSB after Heli incident while performing AC March 2022. TSB Image

      WEATHER IN THE PAST THREE DAYS:

      Monday October 31, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. -3 Deg C with a 20-55 KPH WSW wind.

      Tuesday November 1, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. -5 Deg C with a 0-5 KPH Southerly Breeze. Cold enough!

      Wednesday November 2, 2022. 13:00 Hrs. -7 Deg C with a 5-15 KPH North wind.

      Skiing Brohm Ridge Wednesday. Hs 95 cm. 4 Layers MF under fresh.            Rick Meloff Image

       CTH 24 at 25 cm sitting on facets. Surface Hoar in the mix!!

      Brohm Ridge Wednesday afternoon!                                                                                 WF Image

      If you like this blog please donate to keep it going. Click top right side bar.                      WF Pic

   

Weather Observations for November 3,2022 taken at 06:00 Hours.

2180 meters   -10, Winds were 35-45 KPH SW--Whistler Peak 

1835 meters     -7, Winds were 15-35 KPH SSW--Round House

1650 meters     -6, 0.0 mm in 12 Hrs, 0.0 mm in 24 Hrs. Base 52 cm (ESDS) --Pig Alley

  660 meters     -3, Valley Temp, Max temp Yesterday was +4.2, 0.0 mm of precip yesterday. 

      Sunrise Thursday 08:05 Hrs. Overcast skies with variable visibility.

 FORECAST:

AR event moving down the coast in a North-Northwesterly flow aloft. Increasing cloud cover with precipitation and moderate winds as the morning progresses. Snow expected today to the valley with the freezing level rising tomorrow as the milder air and moisture hit the coast. Wet, warm, and windy Friday. Surface to 1800 m freezing level than back down to surface would be nice. Some models are calling for it to go high as 2000 m. Time will tell!! Saturday is looking unsettled with some flurries, mostly cloudy skies with some sunny breaks.  Low will bring a weak trough for Sunday with the possibility of light snow down to the valley. Much cooler temps with some possible flurries Monday. Arctic outbreak will bring dry cold weather for early next week. Will post again Monday. Will post Mondays and Thursdays until winter operations. Guesstimates: 10-15 mm by Friday am, 10-25 mm by Saturday am, 1-5 mm by Sunday am, 0-5 mm by Monday am.

      GOES IR Image from Thursday am.

      GOES 17 ABI image 2022/11/03. 05:00 Hrs.

      Windy image Thursday 06:00.

         AR (3?) event moving down the coast Thursday, still cool but looking to change.

      Moisture plume Thursday before Noon.

      Northerly flow aloft.

      Warmer air for Friday. Wet, warm and windy. Should be short lived.

      Friday, appears this may not miss us.

        Looks like Washington State will get a good soaking. Friday!!

      AR event transitions to a cool weak upper level low on Saturday.

      Low off the coast Saturday, should bring us unsettled weather with some showers.

      Low still off the coast, cooler temps, snow to the valley. Arctic outbreak sinking south.

      Mix of some moisture and cool air for snow into the lower elevations.

      Weakening trough with unsettled weather for Monday. Arctic air with flurries.

      INFORMATION & OBSERVATIONS:

     10:00 Hrs Monday. Sunny Breaks with showers. -1 Deg C with a 20-30 KPH SSW wind.
 

      Monday, breaks between showers. Stayed cold and looking good!                                  WF Image

     November 1, 2022. 06:00 Hrs. 10.3 mm recorded at 1650 m. -7 Deg C. Base 57 cm, via ESDS.

       Bowling Alley is filling in. Lots of wind transported snow. Tuesday -10 Deg C at 2280 m.

      Armchair Glacier Tuesday pm. Hi of 0 Low of -10 at 2280 m.                                           WF Image

      Tuesday Evening, Full Moon coming November 8, 2022. Total Lunar Eclipse.            WF Image

      21:00 Hrs Tuesday. Half moon is bright. -10.5 Deg C at 2280 m.

      Sunrise Wednesday, 08:03 Hrs. -9 Deg C at 1835m  with a 5-15 KPH North wind. Making snow!

      Making Snow Wednesday 09:00 Hrs. -9 Deg C at 1860 m.

      Rumbling Glacier, Wednesday am. 2 meter base would be nice!                                       WF Image

      Sled Delivery to No Limits Motorsports Squamish. Winter is coming!                              WF Photo

      Paddle-boarding is unlikely next week with an Arctic Outbreak forecasted. 5 Mil Suit!  WF Pic

      Beavers have created a few obstacles, but that is what they do!!! Maintain Wet Lands!      WF Pic

VIDEOS:

Reactive New Snow: AvyBites

Ski Cutting slab avalanche: Sz 2?

Steep lee slope with two avalanches: Avy Bites

Staying out of harms way: Skilled or Lucky

Aval mapper--Monitoring avalanches with long endurance UAVs: ASL Team

ARTICLES:

Helicopter Crash reviewed by TSB after performing avalanche control last March: Kootenays

Colorado Avalanche Information Centre open for business: Nov 1, 2022

Early season snowfalls in North America with resorts opening: Planet Ski

Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts: Versik

Shrinking Himalayan Glaciers spell trouble downstream: Yale Climate Connection

October 31, 2022

      Happy Halloween. Models are encouraging for drier weather by 16:00 Hrs today.

      AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:

     First Human triggered avalanche in North America of the season. Mount Baldy.  UAC Image

      Sz 0.5 wet loose near Queenstown, NZ. 2022/10/25.                                                 NZAA Pic

      WEATHER IN THE PAST WEEK:

      Monday October 24, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. -2 Deg C with a 20-40 KPH South wind.

      Tuesday October 25, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. -3 Deg C with a 15-35 KPH SE wind.

      Wednesday October 26, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. -3 Deg C with a 5-20 KPH SSW wind.

      Thursday October 27, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. 0 Deg C with a 25-70 KPH ESE wind.

      Friday October 28, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. -3 Deg C with a 20-45 KPH SSW wind.

      Saturday October 29, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. 0 Deg C with a 15-40 KPH SE wind.

      Sunday October 30, 2022. 12:00 Hrs. 0 Deg C with a 20-50 KPH South wind.

Weather Observations for October 31, 2022 taken at 06:00 Hours.

2180 meters     -2, Winds were 70-90 KPH SSW--Whistler Peak 

1835 meters     -1, Winds were 15-30 KPH SE--Round House

1650 meters      0, 5.2 mm in 12 Hrs, 29.2 mm? in 24 Hrs --Pig Alley

  660 meters    +5, Valley Temp, Max temp Yesterday was +6.8, 28.7mm of precip yesterday. 

Precipitation amounts measured from last Monday to this Monday in the Sea to Sky Corridor. 

West Vancouver 181.2 mm, Squamish 216 mm, Whistler 80.7 mm?, Pemberton 48.3 mm.

Most of the moisture stayed South of our zone.

Temperatures at 2180 m over the past few days have seen Highs of -1 with lows of -3.

      As of 07:00 Hrs Monday we have overcast skies, limited visibility and snowing lightly.

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FORECAST:

The weak AR will push through today transitioning to a cool upper level trough  this pm in a Westerly flow aloft. We can expect periods of light precipitation with a chance of some sunny breaks later in the afternoon. Dirty ridging will develop for Tuesday with a mix of sun and cloud with the chance of an afternoon shower. Cool cloudy dry weather for Wednesday with some afternoon sunny breaks. Weak front for Thursday with cool temperatures and light precipitation, could see snow in the valley. Precipitation will pick up in the pm as the AR event moves down the coast.  Warm? wet and windy for Friday with an active frontal band. As of now looks unsettled Saturday and Sunday with a mix of sun, cloud and snow showers with cooler temperatures. Looks like cooler temperatures with some flurries early next week. Will update again Thursday with more up to date information. Guesstimates: 5-10 mm by Tuesday am, 0 mm by Wednesday am, 0-trace mm by Thursday am, 5-10 mm by Friday am, 30-50 mm by Saturday am, 1-2 mm by Sunday am, 1-3 mm by Monday am.

      GOES IR Image for Monday am, front pushing through this am.

      GOES 17 ABI Image 2022/10/31. 05:00 Hrs. AR event has shifted South.

      Next AR event arrives Thursday/Friday. Windy image.

      Weak cooler trough by later this am Monday. 

      Some moisture this Monday am, drying out this pm with chance of some breaks later today.

      Westerly flow aloft for today.

      Dirty ridging Tuesday pm with mostly cloudy skies in the am. Cooler temperatures.

      Lingering cloud but drying trend Tuesday.

      Dirty ridging Wednesday with sunny skies in the pm on Wednesday. Cool temperatures.

      Ridging on Wednesday with sunny skies in the pm.

      Front arrives Thursday, still fairly cool in the am, may warm up in the pm.

      Front arrives Thursday with the beginning of the next AR event.

      Looking wet Friday with strong winds.

      Drier Saturday with cool temperatures and snow flurries.

      Weak front for Sunday with light snow to the valley.

      INFORMATION & OBSERVATIONS: 

      First snow to the valley Monday Oct 24th. 08:00 Hrs.

      Monday morning. 

      Snow flurries Monday 16:30 Hrs. -2 Deg C.

      Tuesday 10:00 Hrs. -4 Deg C with a 15-30 KPH SE wind. Winter in the alpine.

      Snow stake Wednesday 06:00 Hrs. 7.7 mm recorded, looks like around 10-12 cm.

      Wednesday Sunrise, 07:52 Hrs. -7 Deg C at 2280 m. 8.3 mm recorded at 1570 m at 06:00 Hrs.

      GOES 17 ABI Image 2022/10/26. 07:00 Hrs. Weak shortwave ridge over Whistler. Storm coming! 

       Looking wet for Thursday, break Friday before more weather early Saturday.

      Snow line Wednesday afternoon.

      Thursday 06:00 Hrs. +1 Deg C. 3.0 mm recorded in precip gauge at Pig Alley, (1650m).

      Sunrise 07:53 Hrs. 0 Deg C. 3.9 mm recorded at 1570 m.

      Thursday. Next one top left looks juicy as well! You can smell the pineapples today.

      Much going on in the North Pacific. Sunday event looks wet.

      Friday, cornice lines forming. 100-140 KPH winds in the alpine on Thursday.

      Straw line? installed on Red. Saturday 17:00 Hrs.  High of 0, Low of -2 at 1835 m. 

    Saturday same time line as above image. Periods of light precip up until 17:00 Hrs. 4.5 mm at 1650.

         From South Coast Touring Oct 29th, 50 cm on the way up to Metal Dome. Andy Buchanan pic.

      Sunday morning. More moisture coming for next week. Nov 4th could be juicy.

      Sunday am. GOES 17 ABI Image.  100-140 KPH winds at 2180 m in the am.

     Sunday 12:00 Hrs at 1860 m, 0 Deg C with a 30-55 KPH South wind.

      Sunday 12:00 Hrs +2 Deg C. 22 mm recorded in precip gauge from midnight to noon.

VIDEOS:

Fast moving avalanche: Stopped just in time

Big Air: Lucky Recovery

Cheating death after initiating an: Avalanche

Controlling Cornices: AvyBites

Early Season Hazards: AvyBites

How to do a Pre-Season Gear Check: MtAvalanche

Early Season Beacon Drills: MtAvalanche

Skier Triggered Avalanche Animation: Bruce Jamieson

ARTICLES:

Human-triggered avalanches in the Cottonwood Canyon prompts warning:Utah

Elk Valley Snow Avalanche Workshop: November 13, 2022

A space to Breathe--Recovery for Mountain Trauma: PowderCloud

First triple-dip La Nina of the century: WMO

Study suggests La Nina winters could keep on coming: University of Washington

Avalanche Film about Rogers Pass, 1979: Revelstoke Mountaineer

The Changing Face of Avalanche Canada: PowderCloud

Early Season Jaunts at Old Familiar Haunts: Avalanche Canada